Latest revision as of 19:26, 17 January 2021

It is now mid-July 2013. By most accounts World War III, the Twilight War as it is commonly called, has raged officially for almost three years. But in reality, the fighting goes back much further than that, at least a decade prior. When did it begin? How did it start? This chapter describes the major events that contributed to the Twilight War of Twilight: 2013.

Some historians openly refer to the 2006 global bushfire wars collectively as the beginning of World War III. By modest accounts there were over 30 armed conflicts raging on four continents. Some were traditional wars being fought over territory; some were part of spreading religious fundamentalism. The acceptance of this idea reached as high up as major political leaders of several countries, including a former U.S. republican Speaker of the House. Although, it was still several years before there was any doubt that the Twilight War was at least in its infancy if not full blown adolescence.

Politically the next couple of years followed in the same footsteps as previous years with hardliners, fundamentalists and conservatives winning several major elections around the world. Most notably in 2006, Mexico elected a conservative president, and Hamas prevailed in Palestinian elections. The main exception to this was in the United States, where democrats managed to win a majority in both the House and Senate of the U.S. congress and eventually claimed the White House in 2008.

Other than continued conflict and hard talk, the next few years also witnessed increased food production problems. With so much food being grown and processed, it was hard to see these problems could be forbearers of future calamity. In the US alone there were well over 100 separate food recalls due to contamination ranging from E. coli to simple allergens in 2006. This amounted to 100s of tons of meat, vegetables and processed foods. With a country as large of the US this wasn’t necessarily a major problem, but coupled with the fact that the US was a large exporter of agricultural products, problems in the US supply chain affected many other countries. Overall, the Twilight War sprung from a combination of many factors...

Global War on Terror

Terrorist activities were a real concern even before 9/11. For almost a decade before the Twilight War, terrorism was a common front page story. Terrorist activities stretched across the globe; Philippines, Spain, England, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Israel, Georgia, Somalia, Colombia, etc. However the most prominent activities recently emanated from Iraq and the Middle East. The Global War of Terror in both Iraq and Afghanistan provided hard core training and battlefield experience to many jihadists. This training later proved to be a major hindrance during the Twilight War, as experienced fighters were exported to other regions to further their causes.

While terrorism is a real concern in the players’ world, terrorism was only a part in the Twilight War. The focus of this edition is not terrorism or religious extremism. Although there is room for these types of factions in the aftermath of the Twilight War.

2007

2007 continues with the same pace of violence, upheaval and conflict as did previous years. The United Nations swears in its last Secretary-General. China successfully tests a new ballistic missile that has the ability to destroy space based satellites. The U.S. steps up its involvement in Iraq with the commitment of 21,500 extra soldiers. This is just January.

Russia cuts oil supplies to Germany, Poland and Ukraine for three days. Russia cuts off oil supplies along the Druzhba pipeline to prevent Belarus illegally siphoning off oil. This in turn affects the supply chain in Germany, Poland and Ukraine as Russia begins to flex its muscles once again.

At the beginning of the year the European Union Battle groups (EU BGs) reach their operational capacity. Most of the EU BGs consist of multi-national groups numbering around 1500 soldiers plus command and support services. The EU BGs are the first steps towards a common EU military. The first EU BGs are rotated so that two of them are ready for deployment within 5 to 10 days.

The 2006 United States Congressional elections result in a centrist shift in the nation’s legislative body. Growing displeasure with the incumbent administration’s policies fuel many campaigns, and a large crop of freshman Senators and Representatives find themselves attracting attention from others facing reelection in two years.

Almost as soon as the new members of Congress take their oaths of office, national and world attention swings from their bright new faces to the 2008 Presidential election. Both major parties almost immediately hit the campaign trail. By midsummer there are 18 mainstream candidates with more potential still undeclared. Many states also move their primaries earlier in hopes of drawing more attention and political clout to their elections. The democratic and republican candidates are determined before the end of February of 2008.

On top of political changes in the U.S., 2007 also sees a continuation of the food recalls which were dramatically highlighted in the previous year. In addition to food and agricultural products, recalls also affect toothpaste, animal feed and even pet food. These tainted products are linked to China.

The U.S. isn’t the only country to see a shift in political power this year. England watches a changing of the guard as the Prime Minister steps down, and a new more parliamentary minded First Lord assumes the helm. France holds elections with both the presidency and legislature secured by the same party, thus giving control of French policy to a single right wing, U.S.-friendly party.

In the spring, the Ukrainian president dissolves their parliament and sets elections for the fall. The elections are widely seen as a fraud after the pro-president coalition takes control and ousts the former Prime Minister.

Venezuela’s leftist President maintains his war of words with his American counterpart. With the shift in the American Congress, the Venezuelan tactics alter from antagonizing the leader of the large northern nation to ignoring him in favor of developing ties to the new legislative leadership and the governors of individual states.

Iraq continues to dominate international concerns and American foreign policy. The civil war between rival Islamic factions worsens throughout the year, despite the best efforts of the international community to negotiate – or force – peaceful settlements. Neighboring Iran covertly assists Shiite militants, which prompts an equal Sunni response from Saudi Arabia.

Longstanding tensions between the two oil-rich nations hampers other multinational efforts, and the violence in Iraq continues unabated. In addition, Turkey begins armed incursions into the north to deal with Kurdistan Workers’ Party (known as the PKK) rebels based out of Iraqi Kurdistan. Between Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, by the end of the year there will be of over 20,000 foreign operatives inside the borders of Iraq.

In Afghanistan, American and allied forces continue their almost-forgotten campaign against Taliban and Al- Qaeda guerrillas. The Afghan government begins pressuring the American leadership to assist in internal law-enforcement efforts, particularly against opium growers, further stretching the already-overextended forces. Dwindling opium production, which was almost destroyed under the Taliban, dramatically increases production during Operation Enduring Freedom. Media coverage begins to force the newly democratic government to act against the growing opium trade straining relations with farmers and regional warlords who view this as a cash crop.

Pakistan’s internal strife begins to boil over in the summer. The president’s crackdown on militant groups inside the country leads to the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) confrontation. The standoff with the Red Mosque leaves scores dead and wounded and severely tests the president’s position. This standoff, however, sets off a chain of events resulting in a wave of violence that sweeps through the country. So penetrating are the operations against extremist groups that Al-Qaeda declares war against Pakistan.

In November, the Pakistani president declares a state of emergency and suspends the constitution. Protests demand that elections be held. Instead, thousands are arrested. The rest of the world looks on in shock as the country begins to devolve into chaos. Pakistan’s ability to secure its nuclear weapons is called into question, and many countries in the region put their militaries on high alert. The internal strife continues throughout the year and into next year.

November also sees a change of leadership in Australia. The new party in power runs almost exclusively on withdrawing Australian troops from combat missions in Iraq and addressing climate change. The U.S. led mission in Iraq is quickly losing partners and gaining enemies.

Low-intensity wars in Africa continue on, mostly ignored by the rest of the world. Ethiopia’s increasing involvement in Somalia’s civil war causes concerns in Eritrea and Sudan – the latter nation already embroiled in conflict in its western Darfur region. By the end of the year more than 200,000 are killed in the Darfur conflict alone.

Like the previous couple of years, natural disasters also lend a hand in deteriorating the global situation. Large portions of the world are covered in drought throughout the year, including rich farm countries like China and the U.S. Floods sweep through many countries from England to China to the U.S. Earthquakes continue to strike the ring of fire. The Solomon Islands quake being one of the largest of the year, leaves thousands homeless and completely wipes out at least 13 entire villages. All of these disasters combine to put pressure on worldwide food resources; droughts and floods reduce the production, while contamination, earthquakes and other disasters begin to shrink the available surplus.

2008

This year begins even more turbulent than 2007 ends. While previous years definitely added to the potential for the Twilight War, 2008 will be judged as the point of no return. In retrospect, the events of this year make it hard to believe that World War III is unavoidable. Global stability begins to decrease rapidly, and by the end of the year some form of chaos will touch every corner of the globe.

In the U.S., January marks the beginning of the presidential election primaries. Surprisingly the Democratic ticket is won by a former governor from the southwest. This pits him against the hardnosed Republican from New York.

Reports in from late 2007 signaled trouble for Afghanistan. These reports prove eerily prophetic in the early months of the year. Over 60% of Afghanistan is reportedly under control of the former oppressive extremist government, and terrorists roam freely about the countryside. Coalition forces are under increasing attacks, and the first part of the year sees death tolls comparable to that of Iraq from 2006.

Elections are held in Pakistan in February. The result is called into question immediately, with the incumbent president winning in a landslide. Considering the political unrest, the continued protests and the military power the president still wields, most believe the election results to be a fraud. Western reporters are expelled from the country or arrested. The UN electoral commission is not allowed into the country, and a repeated request from the U.S. and EU for democracy is ignored.

Pakistan and India step up their standoff over the disputed Kashmir region. Due to last year’s Red Mosque incident and the continued political unrest, Pakistan cracks down hard on extremists and political protesters. This puts more pressure on the Pakistani military that shifted more trained and experienced soldiers away from the Kashmir Line of Control. India begins to ratchet up its efforts against separatist militants in the wake. The European Union peacekeeping force, the EUFOR Chad/ CAR, begins deployment to Chad in February. The force deployed to the UN mission has 4,300 troops from 11 European countries, with the French responsible for nearly half of the contingent. Their mission mandate is to protect civilians, humanitarian aid and UN personnel.

In March, yet another toy and food recall is issued for products made in China. The U.S. is hit hardest as it imported over 90% of the recalled material. In addition to an already difficult year of recalls from Chinese made goods, this time one of the tainted food products is believed to have caused the death of a U.S. Senator’s grandson. The U.S. government enacts swift action and imposes a strict ban on Chinese imports until safeguards and inspections are in place. Many European countries quickly follow the American action with Chinese import bans of their own.

In China, manufacturing companies begin massive layoffs. This sends a flood of people into the workforce, lowering wages and forcing many people into poverty. This causes a ripple effect in the Chinese economy as its own retail markets are forced to lower prices, creating more problems for those employed in the retail sectors. Moreover, the Chinese people were not the only ones affected. The ban effectively cuts billions of dollars out of the government’s budget, one largely focused on military spending. By the end of the year (since the ban will not be lifted until the summer of 2009), China is thrown into a great depression. Rather than blame government and manufacturing practices, many of its people blame the west and specifically the U.S. for their lot in life.

Military enlistments will be at an all time high this year. While in the U.S., consumer confidence plummets, and prices rise. Several old, large companies who moved their manufacturing to China file for bankruptcy and close down. The ban affects many aspects of American and European life from food to electronics.

There are shortages of many of the products that western civilization has taken for granted. In addition, due to the effect the ban has at the corporate level, layoffs take place in all sectors forcing millions of Americans and Europeans into unemployment.

Many U.S. companies look to Mexico to replace their cheap Chinese labor and materials. Within months many new plants are built in Mexico. For a time this even begins to solve the immigration problems in the U.S. as scores of illegal immigrants cross back into Mexico for work.

The same pattern emerges with many European companies (although on a smaller scale than the U.S.) looking for cheap labor and production costs in Eastern Europe. While not as cheap as Chinese or Mexican based plants, Eastern Europe offers cheaper production costs than those in Western Europe.

The U.S. government shifts focus towards homeland projects designed to repair the economic situation. Adding that this is an election year, every politician under the sun unveils a recovery plan. However, little gets accomplished, and many foreign endeavors are placed in limbo, including the Global War on Terror.

After years of relative quiet, several countries in South America begin to make headlines during the summer. The war of words between the leaders of Colombia and Venezuela heats up and boils over into the general populace. In addition to severing all diplomatic contact last year, the Venezuelan president also imposes strict border controls and an embargo against all Colombian trade.

This action not only severs ties with the Colombian government but also enrages drug lords who use Venezuela as a point of departure for their drug trade. Border incidents increase as drug-related insurgents attempt to circumvent the increased border security. Pretty soon, rumors spread about Venezuelan ground forces crossing the border and operating inside the Colombian territory. The American Special Forces presence in Colombia is increased to help handle the crisis.

The situation is finally brought under control thanks to a Brazilian led six nation summit, including Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Guyana, Peru and Brazil. In return for normalized diplomatic relations with Colombia, Venezuela is granted increased trade and economic opportunities from the summits participating countries. The accepted view is that most of the South American countries are strong-armed into the agreement by Venezuela because of their oil. Even the U.S. seems to reluctantly hold off criticizing the agreement.

After failed talks last year, North and South Korea again agree to enter into peaceful negotiations. While the world watches the Olympics in Beijing, the Korean leaders meet for a 5 day summit in the middle of the summer to discuss denuclearization of the north and other peaceful initiatives between the two countries. North Korea suppresses their historic obstinacy and several major accomplishments come out of this historic summit.

North Korea agrees to denuclearization in exchange for technology, oil and food (all in short supply). The South Korean President puts forth a Korean Peninsula peace arrangement to formally end the Korean War. Having tried the year before unsuccessfully, this move is largely seen as political. Surprising the world audience, the North readily agrees to it, declaring peace between North and South Korea. Thus on August 21st, the Korean War officially ends, 58 years after it began.

In November Americans go to the polls and elect a new president. This election is marred in character assassinations and petty politics. Even so, the American people vote overwhelmingly for a change in policy and direction. In a landslide victory, democrats win back the White House. In addition, democrats continue their congressional victories of 2006 and increase their majority in both houses of Congress.

The U.S. and Pakistan are not the only countries holding presidential elections this year. Russians elect another ex-KGB official as their president. His platform involves taking a hard line against internal extremist groups and the pro-democracy west. He also reiterates Russia’s right to a pre-emptive military strike in the name of national interest.

Presidential elections were also held in Taiwan. A win by the pro-independence DPP party increases the tensions between the two Chinas. The day after the election results are made public, the Chinese premier announces China’s right to a pre-emptive military strike in the name of national interest.

In Iraq the situation continues to deteriorate as more and more violence rages across the country. At the beginning of the year, there was a hope that American forces could begin to redeploy and draw down, but as the year progresses, attacks increase by innovative insurgent and terrorist forces. Attacks become more high-profile and deadly. Rather than seemingly random acts of violence, they become more strategic and surgical in nature.

The most significant act of the year takes place during a Shiite pilgrimage to the holy city of Karbala, which had been the target of several large scale bombings each year since the invasion. With over 100,000 pilgrims present, five gasoline tanker trucks are simultaneously exploded inside the city. The explosions and subsequent panic leave an estimated 5,000 dead and injured.

Ukraine holds presidential elections early in December this year, where a hard liner with KGB connections is elected president. As with the previous elections, this year’s is not without controversy. Pro-parliamentary forces band together under one banner - The Rada, or council. The Rada splits into two camps; the political arm, which continues to wage a war of words against the president and his puppet parliament; and the insurrectionary arm, whose goal is to unseat the presidency by means of force.

One of the oddest causes for the preludes to the Twilight War begins to surface this year. As demand grows for alternative and greener fuel sources, many farmers in the U.S. and worldwide begin shifting their entire crops to produce corn. The majority of this corn is destined for ethanol production plants. This shift causes a decrease in agricultural food stores by over 20%, which are already hurting in the U.S. due to the Chinese ban.

By the end of 2008, thanks to this shift, drought, E. coli, salmonella and other causes, many developed countries start to experience wide spread food shortages. The need to feed their own people soon takes precedence over humanitarian aid to less developed nations. Many third world countries that depended upon food exports in the form of aid from countries like the U.S. experience systematic starvation.

2009

The Treaty of Lisbon, signed by the EU countries in 2007, enters into force on January 1st. The treaty carries out several reforms in the EU, many of which have no effect in the life of ordinary citizens as the treaty is mostly political in nature. The most visible change is the selection of the President of the European Council, a position which has important symbolic value even if the president has no executive powers. Later this year, the European Council appoints its first permanent president, an ultra-conservative Frenchman who was once a prospect for a high level position in the current French administration.

January 20, 2009 the newly elected U.S. democratic president assumes office and by the end of the month issues orders for the redeployment of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. His first move is to decrease the number of troops in Iraq to around 100,000, bringing the majority of those soldiers home, while shifting some to Afghanistan. The reductions in forces also include naval forces located in the Persian Gulf. By mid-summer U.S. naval presence in the area is also reduced, but it remains above pre-war numbers.

The new American policy is to focus on fighting extremist groups. The U.S. forces remaining in Iraq are redeployed to areas outside of Baghdad. Their mission is shifted to three areas of focus: national border security, training of Iraqi security personnel and combating extremist groups, rather than provide for population security.

In contrast to the old strategy, the new shift in direction shows quick progress for the first six months of the year. Since the bombing in Karbala, Iraqis have shown real progress towards peaceful reconciliation. The bombing has the effect of actually bringing the country together rather further driving a wedge between religious factions.

Combined with the withdrawal of one third of the American forces, Iraqi politicians and religious leaders begin to find ways to make their government work for all Iraqis. The Iraqi army steps up to replace American forces in Baghdad. The Iraqi Prime Minister replaces the entire Ministry of Interior staff and promotes a Kurd to the position of Interior Minister. The national police force is then purged of its sectarian leadership by the new Interior Minister.

American forces also experience a higher level of success on the terrorism and insurgency front than in previous years. In the early months of the year, U.S. forces interdict several large shipments of weapons and reinforcements from Iran. One such shipment carries Iranian uniformed soldiers and a high level officer (although his identity is never released). The renewed efforts of the Americans, as well as the loss of their major supply of equipment and logistics, force the extremists groups to retreat and reorganize.

A casualty of the ban on Chinese imports from the U.S. is the Three Gorges Dam in China. Cutbacks in the Chinese budget force many cost cutting measures to be implemented in its construction. It is completed in February of this year; however, within weeks cracks begin to appear and other structural elements show signs of fatigue and stress. On May 13th, water begins to break through a large crack in the surface. Two days later, the dam almost completely disintegrates.

The dam’s rupture causes flooding on an epic scale along the Yangtze River valley. Over three thousand square kilometers are flooded and over 5,000 people are reportedly killed or listed as officially missing, while an additional 900,000 more are affected in some way. The dam’s collapse also causes wide-scale power interruptions throughout the region. It takes almost two months to return power in some areas.

In June, one of the largest car bombs ever explodes in Islamabad, Pakistan destroying an entire city block and killing the president of Pakistan and several key National Assembly members in the process. The Prime Minister immediately assumes power but is assassinated within the week. Seizing the moment, the former exiled ex-president assumes control of the government while the top Pakistani General assumes command of its armed forces.

This splitting of power creates a tension between the military and the government. Prior to the previous president’s coup, the control was split sufficiently for the military to conveniently ignore politicians. The new government begins pro-reform crackdowns aimed at reigning in the military and stopping the carnage that is swallowing the country. The military however is continuing its operations against extremist and anti-government forces.

On July 15th, most of the Caribbean and the southern half of Florida are decimated by Hurricane Larry, a category five hurricane. Hardest hit is Cuba. The island is left utterly destroyed; even the U.S. base at Guantánamo is completely leveled. While the U.S. is kept busy dealing with the devastation from Hurricane Larry in Florida, Cuba’s longtime ally Venezuela comes to its rescue.

Hurricane Larry strikes Florida as a category five hurricane with wind speeds exceeding 265 km/hr. Larry makes landfall about 20 miles south of Miami and proceeds up the middle of the state for about 200 miles before heading back out to the Atlantic near Orlando. The level of destruction exceeds that of Hurricane Katrina from 2005. Having learned their lessons from Katrina, officials activate almost the entire southeastern military might immediately to assist in the disaster.

The U.S. government sends only a small detachment of marines to secure the U.S. base at Guantánamo and evacuate the survivors. Only a few of the prisoners survive, fueling speculation (and congressional inquiries) for years about the actual happenings during the hurricane. With Venezuelan forces on the ground already, the situation becomes tense and soon mirrors the Cuban missile crisis decades before. Cuba officially denies U.S. forces access to their base and rejects all offers of humanitarian aid. With the destruction of the naval base at Guantánamo, Cuban officials use this as an opportunity to end what they feel is an illegal occupation by the U.S.

After weeks of political wrangling, the U.S. decides not to press the issue and reluctantly withdrawals. With a stretched military and the threat of the loss of Venezuelan oil, the U.S. has no real alternatives (except an unappealing military one). In retaliation, the U.S. steps up its Coast Guard interdiction in the Caribbean. Many of these “interdictions” involve “official” Venezuelan cargo ships destined for Cuba. These actions further exacerbate the growing tensions over Venezuela in the entire region.

At the same time a tremendous heat wave stretches across most of the northern hemisphere during the summer months. The effects of this heat wave are far worse than those of 2003. By the time it begins to cool down, almost 60,000 people are dead with a 50% shortfall in crops worldwide. Unlike the 2003 heat wave, almost every French vineyard is completely devastated, adding to the psychological torment of the Parisian people.

Whole harvests are destroyed in the sweltering heat, and the food reserve in many countries is rapidly depleted. Not only is the current yield affected, but the seed crop for the following years is stunted. This leaves many countries not only hurting this year but also for several years to come. The strain on the U.S. and other nation’s food aid exports is almost at its breaking point.

The economic strain is also too tough for many countries to bear. No harvest means no food to eat, but it also means no money from crop sales. Economic pressure points surface: low water levels threaten everything from generating power to fighting fires, outdoor events suffer low attendance, movie production delays from being unable to film in the heat, and even tourism rates drop as people stay away from “hot” locations. This creates further problems both nationally and internationally for many countries. Tensions rise between the “have” and the “have not” countries.

Because of the continued redeployment of combat troops in the Middle East and North Koreas’ quiet and accommodating manner since the peace treaty of 2008, the U.S. officially ends its military presence on the Korean peninsula in August. Almost all of the 35,000 troops stationed there are shifted to Afghanistan and Iraq, allowing a large contingent of Army personnel to cycle back stateside. Only a thousand U.S. soldiers and Department of Defense (DoD) civilians remain in South Korea in a logistics capacity and to continue the combined relationship in affect for the last 60 years.

Since the car bombing that killed the Pakistani president, India has been augmenting its troop strength along the Kashmir border. Its public goal is to deter terrorism from spill over into its region, while its private reasoning focuses on the hope of possibly taking advantage of the chaos to seize the disputed area. By September, India enjoys a 4 to 1 superiority along the border.

The Libyan leader dies in September. Because he actually has no official state title and Libya being “a state of the masses”, no person replaces him. Instead the Prime Minister steps up and assumes all of the formers duties and responsibilities. The death of the Libyan leader causes great unrest throughout the west as they prepare for all possibilities, but by the end of the year most fears are subdued.

One of the Prime Minister’s first acts as de facto head of state is to continue to expand the Great Manmade River project. Libya contracts with several additional large European companies to develop the project. In exchange for their assistance Libya grants them all large swathes of land (about 10 sq. km. each) near Benghazi along the Mediterranean coast. The companies quickly setup their own company towns, construct ports, and begin importing in thousands of workers (both labor and security).

In addition to public works, the Prime Minister goes on a European and North American tour to repair political ties and Libya’s national image amongst the west. The new democratic president of the U.S. welcomes the offer and holds a North American summit with Libya, Canada and Mexico. Officially not much is accomplished at this meeting; however, the groundwork is laid that will see benefits next year as the river project is expanded and offered to American companies.

Having continued unabated, the conflict in Darfur begins to spread throughout central Africa, first into Chad and then in the Central African Republic. Unable to idly sit by while the region erupts into chaos (or more realistically before the carnage threatens European interests in Libya) the UN decides to step up its involvement in the peacekeeping process. In October, several European Union Battle groups (EU BG), mostly from Central European nations, land in Sudan.

The United States, already stretched thin due to the War on Terror, continues to abstain from entering this conflict directly. They do, however, offer assistance to the EU forces through intelligence gathered from CJTF-HOA (Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa).

The Islamic world views the U.S. as defeated in Iraq, based on troop withdrawal and comments by the U.S. President. His apologetic and conciliatory tone perpetuates this view by most of the Arab world despite the apparent peaceful transition occurring and vigorous prosecution of the remaining extremists in Iraq. Thus the remaining terrorists seek to exploit their recent “victory” elsewhere, and see the Sudan as an opportunity to take the Jihad against more westerners.

It’s estimated that over 25,000 foreign fighters enter Sudan and its neighboring countries. These insurgent units not only throw more manpower into the conflict, they also bring techniques and experience learned from the battlefield of Iraq.

As EU BG forces make their way from village to village, they find further atrocities that are quickly beamed around the world by the embedded reporters. Images and news reports fill the airwaves; public opinion in both Europe and North America quickly turns against the conflict. The fighting in central Africa intensifies as the months drag on. After only three months of fighting, the EU mission in Darfur already seems destined to become a quagmire.

Tension continues to mount in Pakistan between the government and the military. In November, the Parliament passes resolutions to end the military’s ongoing anti-terrorist operations, which are quickly signed into law by the President. On the morning of the 18th of November, in retaliation for these resolutions, the military seizes control of both the Parliament offices and the Presidential residence in Islamabad.

The coup is executed rapidly and is over by that afternoon. Unlike the previous coup, which was bloodless, the military quickly holds a military tribunal and tries the entire Parliament and the President for treason against the peoples of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. It takes only 3 days to find the entire lot guilty. Public outrage is swifter than the military coup, as tens of thousands take to the streets. The protests do not affect the outcome of the tribunal as death sentences are carried out over the next 4 days.

The international community is as shocked over the turn of events in Pakistan as its own citizens are. Extreme concern over the security of Pakistan’s’ nuclear weapons in the midst of this conflict prompt numerous countries to petition the UN for action. However, all resolutions aimed at abating the internal Pakistani dispute fail to pass the Security Council due largely to the influence of India, China and Russia.

The Pakistani public, enraged at the actions of the military, actively begin to resist the military and make calls for the arrest of top military officers and the reinstatement of governmental officers. The military response is more of the same, swift and forceful actions toward those members of the general populace they view as insurrectionists and traitors. This only fans the flames of rebellion, and by December, Pakistan is engulfed in a full fledged civil war between the military and pro-government forces. The U.S. military, along with several detachments of European forces, move swiftly to secure nuclear weapon sites in Pakistan.

Throughout the year, the Rada and their methods are mostly underground and convert in nature in Ukraine. However, in December, they successfully launch an attack on a military post in the Luhansk Oblast region gaining both supplies and heavy ordnance (tanks, APCs, artillery, etc).

2010

By the end of 2009, Al Qaeda and other extremist groups shift their focus away from Iraq and into Pakistan and Central Africa. This allows for a further reduction in coalition forces from Iraq. By January 2010, all non-U.S. combat forces have fully withdrawn from Iraq. This reduction in U.S. combat troops is augmented by an increase in the U.S. presence in Afghanistan.

At the first of the year, the European Union sends in several additional Battle Groups to the Sudan, augmenting the existing peacekeeping force. With the additional troops, the EU BG forces manage to gain control of the conflict and begin to provide real aid to those in the region. By March, the region is relatively calm, scaling down from dozens of small engagements a day to one or two major firefights per week. The influx of foreign extremists though, does manage to create enough havoc to force the peacekeeping mission to an indefinite presence.

Siding with the pro-government forces in Pakistan, terrorist and other extremists groups arm and train the civilian insurrection. Throughout January and February pro-government forces score victory after victory against the military. In February the military starts targeting rebel villages in an effort to deny them aid and comfort. On the 21st of February, the Pakistani army moves into a small village north of Khost to pacify it. The facts of what really happened are never made fully public; allegedly the army received heavy weapons fire as it entered the village. The subsequent firefight left the village completely decimated with its entire population killed.

Until now, warlords and pro-Taliban forces in western Pakistan have remained quiet, preferring to let the dust settle before making their moves. After the Khost incident, they come out of the western mountains in droves. Fearing that the army will move against more villages, the once reclusive western villagers sweep into central Pakistan aimed at destroying the military’s capability of waging further war in their region. The civil war in Pakistan is now a three-way fight between the pro- Taliban, western warlords, the military and the pro-government civilian populace.

The European Union takes another step toward a unified EU military, as the EU countries sign the Treaty of Cordoba. The treaty forces the EU countries toward joint training and procurement programs, and moves EU BG, Eurocorps and Eurofor troops under the command of the EU Military Committee.

In March, the President of the U.S. announces the further withdrawal of an additional 50,000 American soldiers from Iraq. This brings the total Americans in country to less than 40,000 combat troops. This is mainly accomplished through non-replacement of cycling forces as they end their tours. This reduction in force is finished by the end of May.

Preparations are made for August elections in Iraq. Since the first huge American troop reduction in 2009, the Iraqi government has made tremendous strides in reconciliation and peaceful coexistence. The elections will be held entirely by the Iraqis with the assistance of a UN election monitoring team.

In response to the attack by the Rada, Russia increases its presence along the Ukrainian border. They send an additional 20,000 troops to Belgorod and transfer several additional naval vessels into the Black Sea fleet. Since 85% of all Russian oil and natural gas heading to Europe passes through Ukraine, NATO sends additional representatives and advisors into Ukraine to ease the tension and dissolve the mounting civil war.

The situation in Ukraine grows worse as a steady stream of refugees leave the country heading west. Most refugees continue past the former Warsaw pact countries and begin to settle in France, Germany and northern Italy. The surge in refugees escaping the conflict in Ukraine quickly outnumbers those from Africa and the Middle East. Anti-refugee sentiment rises in these countries with political protests and attacks on refugee, on a weekly basis. Special “refugee camps” are created outside major cities to deal with and contain the situation.

Many western European cities start to experience increased civil unrest, crime and economic strain due to the large amounts of refugees pouring into them. Refugees are not just escaping the eastern turmoil, but are also leaving the inhuman conditions of the refugee camps. These refugees provide cheap labor causing high unemployment rates while at the same time burdening civic institutions such as hospitals and schools. Throughout Europe many demonstrations and riots take place as citizens protest this influx.

Also in March, France begins to crack down on refugees pouring in from the east, enacting strict border controls and turning away thousands of refugees. Within a week Germany Italy and Austria follow suit, however France retains the media spotlight being the first and loudest. The situation quickly deteriorates in many cities. Eventually “concerned citizen” groups mobilize against ethnic neighborhoods under the banner of weeding out refugees. Rumors circulate about the French conducting “secret” midnight deportations with people simply disappearing.

The tension between different groups in France culminate in a border incident near Haguenau on July 2nd. Border guards stop several tractor trailers full of refugees trying to enter the country illegally. With temperatures in the mid 90’s, the French guards refuse to let any of the refugees out of the trucks, leaving them locked in all afternoon in the steaming heat. By the time French immigration and diplomatic officials arrive later that evening, most of the 2100 refugees have succumbed to the heat. The incident is covered up and kept out of the news until a video of the incident surfaces on a popular internet video website. Outrage sweeps throughout eastern European counties, and the incident is publicly condemned by world leaders.

Investigations from both the EU and the U.S. begin; however, it will be more than a year before the investigation findings are made public. Protests are staged throughout France by various immigrant and refugee groups. While meaning to be peaceful, these protests turn violent with repeated confrontation by “concerned citizen” groups and local police forces. On July 20th a rally in Paris of 30,000 protestors clash with counter-protestors and police. The resulting confrontation results in over 1000 wounded and 81 dead (the dead all belonging to the protesting groups).

On Sept 11, 2001, the Americans suffered their day; on July 30, 2010 the French suffer theirs. During the Coupe de France in the Stade de France, a group of “terrorists” release a highly toxic Novichok agent (a broad classification for a series of Russian next generation nerve agents) into the crowd. During the panic and confusion they also detonate a van full of an approximately 1000 kilos of ANFO (Ammonium Nitrate/Fuel Oil high explosive) near the soccer stadium converted to a triage area. The resulting blast causes the collapse of the entire southern goals section. Over 10,000 casualties are estimated because of the agent, stadium collapse and the chaos that follows.

By the end of August, numerous resolutions are hurriedly signed into law targeting extremist groups of all kinds; Muslims, neo- Nazis, anti-government, communists, even leftist political parties. Anyone associated with or believed to be associated with any of the extremist groups on the government’s list are arrested and sent to detention centers. Mass deportations begin in earnest, starting with Ukrainian refugees, then with other groups as the government begins it unofficial program of “peaceful” ethnic cleansing. Again, Germany Italy and Austria, along with Spain, Denmark and Great Britain follow up with similar laws of their own.

Libya’s Great Manmade River project enjoys huge milestones. The program is expanded beyond what most thought it could. By the end of the year hundreds of small villages and towns are reached and included in the system. Large areas of the once desert area are even turned into lush, fertile valleys. Encouraged by this success, several U.S. companies are granted company towns in order to speed further expansion. With the profits these companies start seeing, the financial markets joke that soon there will be more money in water than in oil.

After seeing the success of Libya’s company towns, many other African nations openly adopt the same practice. Most of them are set up for legitimate ventures, such as port operations or diamond mining (as many of them try to turn away from the blood diamond image). However, a few of them are allowed to operate without oversight and begin to create walled citadels where all manner of rumored activities exist.

The most famous of these new company towns is located in Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) about 15 miles up river from Grand- Bassam near Amia, named Utopia. Utopia’s secret will remain intact even past 2013; however, many rumors will travel the world about what happens there.

As many countries are still reeling from the devastating heat of 2009, South American countries are experiencing an economic boom due to agricultural exports. Due to the mild summer and good harvests in the southern hemisphere many countries experience rich harvests. This produces an abundance of food, enough to provide for their people cutting their imports and increasing their exports, creating economic benefits as well.

The exception to the rule is Bolivia. Since the culture clashes between the campesino (farmers) and urban Bolivians began (in early 2007), the government has been unable to take advantage of the explosion in worldwide demand. Watching their neighbors get richer and richer while they dip deeper and deeper into poverty, the campesino redouble their efforts against the government.

The campesino attempt to paralyze cities by blockading highways, bridges, and main roads (a tactic they have tried before to try and bring the government down). This time the government mobilizes the military in hopes of squashing the conflict once and for all. The military easily quells the uprising through the use of force. Several hundred people are killed during the summer from military actions against the blockades.

This causes an unforeseen backlash of support among the rural populace, with more and more of them pouring in from the countryside. After trying several non-violent means to revolutionize, the campesino change their own tactics and begin an armed revolt against the government. By September fears of an all out Bolivian civil war spread throughout the region. Many countries begin to wonder what effect this will have on the blooming trade situation and begin moving troops to their borders to keep the conflict from spilling over.

In response to the growing crisis, Brazil hosts a South American Summit (only the fourth of its kind) at the end of September. The sole topic of this summit is the crisis in Bolivia. In attendance are all South American countries except Bolivia. After three days of intense meetings and deliberations the summit is adjourned without any real solution to the conflict. By the end of the year, Bolivia will be embroiled in a full scale civil war split along class lines.

Although many U.S. companies have moved their manufacturing plants to Mexico, illegal immigration is still a problem in the U.S. During the hot summer, border patrol agents along the U.S. – Mexico border encounter a large (approximately 200 individuals) group of illegal immigrants crossing the border near Nogales. Intermixed among the immigrants are members of a Mexican drug cartel. While attempting to stop the group, the border agents come under fire from members of the cartel. After a 5 hour firefight, 50 Mexicans lay dead with another 100 wounded while 10 border patrol agents were killed and 10 more wounded.

According to the Mexican government, the border agents executed the unarmed immigrants and refuted the cartel connection with the incident. The general public in both countries is outraged over the incident but are equally polarized over who was to blame. Politicians from both governments come out on national TV and radio denouncing the other for the blatant disregard for international law. Protestors fill the streets of border towns, especially in the U.S. where pro-Mexican leaning demonstrators rallying almost daily at the U.S. government for what they feel is a criminal act by the border agents. Animosities toward immigrants in the U.S. grow and over the next few months, tensions raise along the border with at least a dozen more incidents of hostiles.

Elections in Iraq take place as planned in August without a single act of violence. However, one single non-violent act destroys all of the progress of the previous two years. Shiites loyal to a firebrand cleric, who also happens to control the largest private militia force in Iraq (which had been relatively inactive for the last two years) win a solid majority in the new government. Without any evidence of impropriety, the UN watchdog group declares the elections legitimate.

This firebrand cleric is elected as the new President of Iraq. Shiites with an Islamic theocracy agenda quickly assume all the major power positions in the new government. All of the vestiges of the previous government are removed, and quickly the sectarian tensions of 2004-2007 return. Record numbers of sectarian violence and civilian deaths are reached in August and September. U.S. forces, now even more undermanned and ill-equipped than during the previous outbreaks of sectarian violence, shift their focus to areas outside of Baghdad, securing U.S./multinational interests and personnel. This allows the new Iraqi government to operate without any real resistance. However, the situation rapidly devolves into an all out civil war.

Leaked video footage from inside the Rada controlled section of Ukraine in August shows what is believed to be a nuclear weapon left over from the former USSR. The Rada deny the claim publicly, but shortly after the leak several journalists from the Ukrainian Independent Information Agency (UNIAN) are found executed. For weeks the footage is analyzed and blasted about on cable news networks. Many people claim the video is a fake or old and outdated being used by Russia to drum up the war beat. Others incite fear and terror over the video. The UN begins an investigation into the source of the video and its authenticity.

One month after the video making its way onto the internet, Russia launches a major assault into Ukraine. The Russian president gives a speech to the media declaring Russia’s right to pre-emptively protect itself from threats. In a spectacular show of combined arms Russia quickly encloses the Rada controlled areas and begins to tighten the noose. Russia now is effectively fighting extremists on two fronts, in Ukraine and in Chechnya.

Russian forces make light work of most of the Rada resistance except for the areas around the city of Luhansk, the Rada stronghold. Rada insurgent fighters manage to inflict moderate losses on Russian troops in heavy fighting in and around the city.

It takes another month of fighting before the Russians declare the city liberated. Although beaten, the Rada are not destroyed. Many survivors go on to wage an Iraqi-style insurgency against their Russian occupiers.

The Ukrainian government does not take the intrusion into its sovereign territory lightly. While they are grateful for the assistance Russia is providing against Rada elements, the Russian invasion is seen as an act of war. Rather than engaging the Russian military however, the Ukrainian military sets up the Luhansk Oblast as a containment zone. The goal being to keep Russian forces from engaging targets elsewhere in the country and to be prepared to repel the Russian invaders once the Rada is put down.

Russia has not been immune to the severe weather seen around the world. Crop production is at an all time low, and the Russian people are demanding action from the government. During the Soviet years, the Ukraine region was often seen as the breadbasket for Russia being a major source of grain, sugar, meat and milk products. With the Russian military already in Ukraine, it does not take much provocation to extend the action.

Arguing that the current Ukrainian government is incapable of controlling its people, the Russians again state their rights to protect their people even against perceived threats. Once the Luhansk Oblast has been pacified though, Russia begins to target the entire country for “pacification”. Using forces already within the country augmented by units near Kursk they move on the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.

Although Ukraine is a supplier of UN peacekeeping forces, no other country comes to their aid. The massive refugee crisis in Western Europe has many believing the Russian rhetoric. Once the action in Ukraine progresses from securing against a possible nuclear threat to complete pacification, people in France and Germany for instance side with the Russians. Many European media outlets begin to portray this action as an expanded security action by the Russians rather than an invasion. The politicians in Europe are basically forced to abide by the wishes of their constituents. Russia’s threat of the oil supply coming through the region into Europe quiets those European politicians not swayed by the media or the populace.

The U.S. also abstains from the conflict both militarily and diplomatically. With no backing from the European members of the UN Security Council and no willingness to go at it unilaterally, the U.S. sits this one out. Although that doesn’t mean that U.S.-made weapons and supplies don’t reach Ukrainian insurgents.

Although the march to Kiev is not a cakewalk, the Ukrainians are severely outnumbered. This is especially true once Russian VDV (or airborne troops) combat drop to the west of Kiev. In doing so, they capture and secure the main highways west and south of Kiev cutting off reinforcements to the city. Russian naval infantry also assault and capture Odessa. With the Ukrainian forces split on four fronts, the main Russian assault faces only moderate resistance on their way to Kiev.

Russian naval forces in the Black Sea dispatch or capture almost all of the vessels in the Ukrainian navy, most while still in port. The only real issue of consequence is with the Zaporizhzhia, a Foxtrot class submarine. Russian naval forces are unable to account for her after the capture of Kiev and the fall of the Ukrainian government. Most military officials believe that she is scuttled rather than allowing her to fall back into Russian hands.

Kiev falls on December 23rd. A military coup takes place against the Ukrainian government after Kiev falls. The new “President- General” of the Ukraine officially surrenders the country on the 25th with a ceasefire declared on the 26th. Rather than leaving the country as a sovereign nation and then having to deal with “nation building”, Russia formerly dissolves the Ukrainian government and absorbs the entire nation into Russia. Most Western nations are appalled by this action but reluctantly agree that it is simply the easiest method to deal with the situation.

Surviving Ukrainian military personnel and equipment are absorbed into the Russian military and pressed into service along the Belarus/Ukraine border far from the political center of the country. The Ukrainian armed forces personnel outside of Ukraine (including those in Kosovo, Lebanon and Sierra Leone) take political asylum with their respective host nations rather than return. A small insurgency takes hold in Ukraine but it does not have the equipment or manpower to do more than become an annoyance for the Russian military.

In November, both the U.S. and Mexican governments officially close their respective borders and prevent all tourist travel within their countries. Mexican tourists are halted at the border and turned away from the U.S. Mexican illegals are rounded up in massive raids across the U.S. and deported back to Mexico. American tourists in Mexico are jailed, beaten or worse. The treatment of trapped American tourists threatens to send the situation into a tailspin.

Exacerbating the problem is both the pressure corporate America exerts now with the loss of their Mexican plants and the growing tension between farmers and migrant workers. Many U.S. companies, including those in the automobile industry, regret their previous addiction to cheap parts from Mexican-based plants and are forced to shutdown their American-based plants due to broken supply lines. With the poor crop harvests and high temperatures, migrant workers are receiving less pay for more work.

A week before Thanksgiving, the president of the U.S. sends a former president turned diplomat to Mexico to try and resolve the issue. The Thanksgiving Day Deal (as it’s come to be called) is announced to the general public. It allows for the reopening of the border as well as a joint U.S.-Mexican border patrol initiative.

Neither side is entirely happy with the terms of the deal that takes 9 months to actually pass the U.S. Congress. Public tension settles down but still remains high in towns on both sides of the border.

India’s inaction during the Pakistani civil war, while publicly hailed as an action of peace, secretly unnerved leaders around the world and left them wondering about Indian motives. On December 3rd, those motives are brought to light. After fighting throughout the year weakened the Pakistani military, India decides that the timing is right to seize control of the disputed Kashmir region. The military force India has been slowing building up along the border into the disrupted area moves across the border and secures village after village and city and after city.

As 2010 comes to a close almost every developed nation and hundreds of third world countries are involved in some sort of conflict. This is up four fold from just a few years ago. A domino effect surfaces as more and more countries begin to experience armed conflicts. With most of the world participating in the global economy as one nation’s situation worsens so does another’s.

Normal commercial shipping and trade is all but halted with many nations who provide much needed raw materials. Several international incidents involving piracy and attacks on civilian shipping take place. With Navies already stretched thin due to brush wars, there is little protection for many non-military vessels.

Not only is trade and commerce globally linked, but the stock markets of East Asia, Europe and the U.S. are also linked. As one falls so do the others. The situation between the U.S. and China bleeds over to the European markets causing economic problems for the EU. This is one of the reasons that commercial ventures with former hostile states, such as Libya, begin to pop up. The lines between who is a friend and who is not starts to blur once the pocketbooks start to dry up.

2011

As the new year unfolds, Argentina, Peru and Brazil step up their border protection with the crisis in Bolivia growing worse by the month. Taking a different avenue of action, Venezuela begins to arm and train the campesino. They even send in several units to provide security for the campesino leadership.

Not wanting to have Venezuelan influence spread throughout South America, nor wanting to have the violence spread beyond the Bolivian border, Argentina, Peru and Brazil enter into Bolivia as a peacekeeping force. For the first few weeks, things seemed to calm down, and there no major clashes are reported. All of that is ended the first week of February, when an Argentinean helicopter is shot down by Venezuelan forces.

Venezuela refuses to issue an apology, stating that the helicopter entered into Venezuelan airspace. Argentina claims the helicopter was well within Bolivian territory. The crash site is secured by the Venezuelan army who deny access to Argentinean military. If not for cooler political heads in Argentina, the situation could escalate into open conflict between the two nations. As it stands, Argentina was not willing to commit to such an action.

In the two months since India moved on the Kashmir region, they have managed to wrest control away from Pakistani military forces. Pakistani insurgents take to the mountains and attempt to wage a guerilla style resistance against their Indian occupiers. However, this is the only opposition India faces in the region after expunging the Pakistani army. After the heavy fighting is over, the Indian army halts its advances and settles into securing and pacifying the region. Indian armed forces are now within 60 miles of Islamabad but hold their advance, since civil war is still waging in central Pakistan.

After the Pakistani army retreats from the disputed Kashmir region, the only thing keeping Pakistan from launching its arsenal of nuclear weapons against India is the confusion of control between military and government forces (and the multinational military presence providing security at the Pakistani nuclear weapon sites).

The Indian army stops shy of entering areas disputed with China. Even though the Indian army does not encroach upon Chinese territory, the Chinese army is mobilized to the disputed zones in an effort to dissuade India from such action. Under pressure from the Chinese government, India agrees to diplomatic talks regarding the region. After a week of intense negotiation, India concedes control of the controversial districts to China while China recognizes India’s rightful annexation of the region. This essentially blocks any UN action against India over the military incursion into the Kashmir disputed region.

After weeks of unsubstantiated rumors regarding failing health of the de facto leader of North Korea, he is found dead on the morning of April 13th, 2011. Surprisingly, news of his death travels world wide in a matter of hours. Immediately, South Korea begins preparation for an invasion into North Korea in an effort to unify the torn country.

On the 16th of April, South Korea launches its invasion of North Korea. The invasion force encounters light resistance as it makes its way across the DMZ and into North Korea. However, the Republic of Korea Army only advances about 50 km before a cease fire is declared, and Reunification is in the works.

Once the invasion begins, a North Korean General seizes control of the Korean People’s Army and starts a coup. By midafternoon on the 17th, the coup is over and the general declares himself Eternal President of the Republic, a gutsy move and one which successfully rallies the people behind him. His first order is to disband the government and surrender North Korea to the South. On April 19th, Reunification Day, North Korea formally surrenders at Juche Tower in Pyongyang.

The Reunification of the Koreas has immediate effects on the Korean people. Food and other aid is distributed amongst the North. Population centers begin to shift as families migrate south to join their loved ones there. The population shift opens up massive amounts of land, which after help from the U.N. and Seoul is made arable by the spring of 2012.

One unfortunate side effect is the loss of military equipment after an immediate downsizing of the Korean People’s Army due to desertions. Most of this equipment finds its way on the black market. South Korean investigators find evidence of the North’s on going secret nuclear research. The one thing they don’t find is three nuclear bombs reported in North Korea possession from over five years ago.

After almost a year of investigating, the Renseignement Généraux (French Intelligence) is able to identify the group responsible for the Coupe de France bombing. The attack is believed to have been perpetrated by an extremist group operating out of eastern Belarus, in retaliation for the treatment of Ukrainian refugees fleeing the crisis in the Ukraine. The group has ties to several other terrorist organizations and is rumored to be run by a former high ranking KGB officer.

The French president immediately demands that the Belarusan government track down and turn over those involved in the Coupe de France attack. France sends a diplomatic team to Belarus to discuss the joint eradication of the extremist group responsible for the attacks. After a week of talks, the French diplomats are expelled from the country with no resolution.

Partially due to corruption combined with an inability to carry it out, the Belarusan government refuses to comply with the French ultimatum. France declares Belarus a terrorist safe haven. This is especially poignant as it is the same justification Russia used to invade Ukraine in the previous year.

Although in 2006, the French president announced that France would be willing to use nuclear weapons against any state launching a terrorist attack against it, the initial French response is much more conventional. Launching from Latvia, a company of French Foreign Legion troops attempts a nighttime infiltration of Belarus in order to deal with the extremist group responsible for the Coupe de France bombing.

The following day, the Belarusan government releases footage of several downed aircraft that they claim to be evidence of a French incursion into their sovereign territory. Included in the footage are what appear to be 15 survivors, which Belarus claims they’ve captured and later executed as enemies of the state.

After the details of the Belarus fiasco the French government is forced to step up its response. Promising swift and decisive action, the French Parliament authorizes the Prime Minister to take any and all necessary actions to deal with these terrorists.

Such action is finally exercised on the anniversary of the Coupe de France attack as France launches a single nuclear Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) with six independently targetable nuclear warheads, from a submarine located in the Baltic Sea. Five of the nukes target several suspected terrorist strongholds in an area north of Cherikov in Belarus. The last warhead strikes the Belarusan military’s Western Operational Command at Grodno.

The French believe the strikes to have successfully decimated the terrorist group, their infrastructure and Belarus’ capability to retaliate. Public outcry is high especially when the dust settles and it is determined that all of the approximately 17,000 civilians in Cherikov are also killed in one of the strikes (not to mention the deaths from the surrounding towns).

The submarine responsible for the launch is believed to have been hunted down and destroyed by Russian naval forces before it is able to make its way back into open waters.

The nuclear attack is soon dubbed the “Shots Felt ‘Round the World” by the press as word of the attack spreads faster than its blast wave. At 9 pm that night, the French president takes to the air waves explaining to the world what the French people have just done. It is believed for a brief moment the whole world is silent in shock and awe. In a double-speak twist, most of the civilized world publicly condemns the action and calls for retaliation against France, while many of those same nations privately offer France support and assurances of inaction from the UN and EU.

Russia (as well as most Middle Eastern nations) immediately pulls its ambassador from France and closes its embassy there. Russia then goes before the UN Security Council demanding immediate action against France over its blatant disregard for international peace and national sovereignty. This time around though the U.S. blocks any action from the Security Council, since the attack is seen as a necessary escalation in the Global War on Terror. Outside of the Security Council, Germany also sides with the French as does Spain, Israel and Italy.

As the conflict escalates and countries begin to take sides, Russia ceases all oil exports to Europe. The embargo also includes any nation that publicly issued statements of support for France over the Belarus attack. This embargo is absolute and includes all means of transport (trucks, ships and pipe).

Since Belarus lacks the ability and resources to respond to a nuclear attack on its soil, it turns to mother Russia for aid and assistance. Russia sends aid and troops into Belarus. Within a month over 50,000 Russian troops enter Belarus on the peace mission. It doesn’t take long, however, for Russia to expand its mission in Belarus to also include the supposed weeding out any surviving extremist groups.

Back in Europe, a war of words is being waged over France’s actions and the threats from Russia, with each side taking a more and more belligerent posture towards the other. By the end of August, this devolves into the whole of Europe versus Russia with the Russian oil embargo matched by a complete trade embargo by all EU countries. European nations start to ramp up their military in preparation for what looks like an inevitable confrontation.

The EU has its attention diverted elsewhere with the quagmire in Darfur breaching the borders. It’s been a year and a half since the fighting became manageable, but all that changes in August.

Muslim extremists make their way into Chad, Ethiopia, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo raiding villages all along the borders of those countries with Sudan.

The action prompts a quick and violent response from those respective governments. All of them send their militaries into Sudan hoping to kill the threats at their source. The situation quickly destabilizes all of the previous year’s work and throws the whole region into chaos.

With the situation between Russia and France, the member nations of the Darfur peacekeeping force refuse to send any more troops (and several actually pull theirs out). This leaves far too few troops to deal with the escalating crisis. Elements from each of the invading armies eventually cross paths with each other, and these meetings always end violently. Incidental skirmishes spark a war within a war as invading armies now are not only fighting the EU BG forces but each other. Fighting rapidly spills out of the Sudanese border and escalates into open warfare between surrounding nations.

A side effect of this chaos is the chance for many African nations to let loose the reigns of their own militaries and actively engage in open conflict with their neighbors. Once it becomes clear the UN is not sending any more military personnel, or substantially more aid, into the region, additional countries use this opportunity to extract revenge for ancient grievances or raid for supplies.

By the end of November all of the EU peacekeeping forces are withdrawn home to deal with the Russian threat. Most of Africa falls into chaos by the end of this year. Only a handful of bright spots remain by December – Egypt, Libya, South Africa and Côte d’Ivoire. The worst areas end up being those along the coast as the region witnesses a massive return of piracy on the open waters.

Seeing the explosive growth of rich farm land in Libya, Egypt embraces its neighbor and in the fall, signs multiple treaties of mutual support. The treaties include provisions for sharing the water system, providing cheap Egyptian labor for the project’s use, mutual defense and sharing of technology. Egypt manages to open its first company town along the Libyan-Egypt border. These treaties prove to be very beneficial to both countries in the coming years.

Egypt experiences a huge boom in oil and gas transport coming thru the Suez Canal heading to Europe. The amplified revenue allows Egypt to provide increased financial support for the Manmade River Project as well as increasing its military might.

Throughout the year, Iraq slips further into its ongoing civil war. Right before Ramadan, the U.S. Army moves a large contingent (about 20,000 troops and equipment) north into Kurdistan to protect American interests and its Kurdish allies. The Iraqi government is disbanded by the Iraqi president, merely a token act, as the government essentially ceased operating months before. Sunni Arabs in Iraq send envoys to the king of Saudi Arabia, while Shiite clerics turn to the Supreme Leader of Iran for assistance in dealing with the civil war.

The day after Ramadan ends, the Iranian Army drives into Iraq from the east while Saudi Arabia invades from the south. Both nations proclaim their actions are in accordance with international and Islamic law and further announce their intentions are only regional stability. However, both quickly resort to open warfare against the other. This new twist in the Iraqi conflict is merely the start of a new era in the Middle East, the Great Muslim War.

A month into the renewed conflict, Kurdistan officially announces its independence and breaks away from Iraq to form its own sovereign nation. While this is heard around the world, it makes little noise in Baghdad as Sunnis battle Shiites. U.S. forces consolidate and prepare for attacks from either forces but nothing materializes. There is the occasional skirmish but no full scale attack from the Saudis or Iranians on the newly independent Kurdistan. Turkey, however, takes this opportunity to step up attacks against PKK targets in Kurdistan but encounter American forces and is easily thwarted. This doesn’t stop them from the occasional incursion and long ranged attack.

One of the first casualties in the Great Muslim War is the almost complete disappearance of the remaining terrorist groups in Iraq. Neither the Saudi nor Iranian forces suffer these groups to operate. Within a month of the invasion, terrorist groups in Iraq are either killed or retreat to other areas to continue their war against the West.

In retaliation for supporting Shiite Muslims during the last seven years in Iraq which they believe to be the central cause of the whole situation, Saudi Arabia places an oil embargo on the U.S. and all coalition forces that took part in the war. Saudi Arabia agrees to lift the embargo under an “Oil for Weapons” program. Reluctantly the U.S. agrees to supply arms and equipment to the Saudis during the Great Muslim War and to not interfere with Saudi operations in Iraq (including giving control of Basra and southern Iraq to the Saudis). For this, the U.S. will continue to enjoy an uninterrupted supply of oil. The remainder of U.S. forces in Iraq move north into Kurdistan.

During the fall, Russia transfers two Army divisions to Kaliningrad Oblast. In November Russia sends a diplomatic envoy to the President of Belarus. The diplomat offers Russia’s terms of surrender to the president. Having so many Russian troops within the borders, additional troops in Ukraine and in Kaliningrad Oblast, not to mention the fact that Belarus is dealing with a national emergency beyond their capabilities, the president reluctantly surrenders Belarus to Russia without a shot. While the Belarusans are not particularly happy with this situation, there is little they can or want to do. At the moment they are completely dependent on mother Russia’s gracious aid.

On December 1st Russia responds to France’s attack on now Russian soil. Two Delta IV class submarines off the western coast of France launch one SLBM missile each at Europe. Each warhead consists of eight nuclear multiple, independently targeted re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) rated at 100 kt a piece, for a total of 16 nuclear strikes. The two submarines slip into the North Sea and join the rest of the North Fleet as they prepare to tackle the French Navy.

Four of those strikes are high attitude bursts creating an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that serves to knockout and disrupt communication and other electronic equipment. Most modern day equipment is rendered inoperable either directly from the EMP or because of the loss of power.

Everything within about 800 miles of Paris, France is affected by the EMP. This covers all of Britain, Ireland, France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. It also covers parts of Portugal, Spain, Italy and parts of most Western European countries. In an instant Europe is blanketed in darkness. The Russians calculated this effect to stop well short of their current locations. The remaining 12 nuclear targets are the cities of Paris, Brest, Toulon, as well as several key French military installations.

In retaliation, France immediately launches over three dozen nukes targeting various sites in Russia. However, the U.S. decides that an all out nuclear exchange is not an acceptable situation and uses its new missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic to shoot down the French nukes. They manage to successfully engage 75% of the missiles. The remainder go on to strike their intended military targets in Russia, including an EMP burst over major industrial areas in western Russia, centered over Kazan, Russian and reaching as far as the Kiev, Ukraine.

As soon as other European nations can mobilize their representatives, they meet with the French military (now in charge of the country) imploring them not to continue using nuclear weapons against civilian cities. They also negotiate with Russia against any further use. Both sides decide to heed their pleas and through intermediaries agree to a nuclear cease fire against nonmilitary targets. However, both the EU and Russia prepare for all out war.

As Russian oil supplies are cut off from Europe over the war, a harsh winter settles in. After suffering years of record high temperatures during the summer and mild winters, 2011 turns the tables, and the world witnesses the most brutal winter in at least a century. By October, frost sets in. By November many countries already see snowfall, and by December almost all of Europe, Russia and North America are covered in blizzard-like conditions.

As November rolls around, Argentina sends additional units into Bolivia to secure its area of control and counter Venezuelan actions. Surprisingly, Venezuela counters this by withdrawing all of its combat troops from Bolivia. Also, not wishing to be dragged into a sustained conflict, Brazil and Peru pull their troops out of Bolivia in response and move them to secure their border with Bolivia.

The conflict in Bolivia spreads across the border though and begins to influence poor farmers in other countries such as Paraguay. The Soybean War in Paraguay is now taken to a new level as campesinos there take arms against the wealthy foreign controlled farms in an attempt to take them back. In addition, several anti-government factions in other countries begin renewed actions, including the Shining Path in Peru.

At the end of the year, several Central Asian countries hold a conference to address the Great Muslim War raging to the south. At attendance are Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. The conflict in Iraq essentially boils down to a conflict between Sunni and Shi‘ah Muslims. With the conference attendees being predominately Sunni Muslims, there is a heavy inclination to join the fight. However, for the time being cooler heads prevail. They draft the beginnings of a loose confederation of nations. The Islamic Confederation of Nations (ICN) is the first step towards a unified coalition of nations aimed not only at thwarting Shi‘ah religious extremists but also to provide mutual support and assistance.

2012

The situation in South America begins to rapidly spiral out of control. Almost every country is now involved in some sort of serious conflict. The nuclear exchange in Europe cuts out a huge market for goods both legal and otherwise from the South American economy. On the legal side, many of the South American countries that were prospering from their unique situation now begin to feel a huge pinch as at least 40% of their market is cut off. Those involved in the South American drug trade are also hit hard by the war in Europe, which cuts shipments by almost 90%.

The increasing economic strain felt by many adds new fuel to the fires already burning. Many people who were content and enjoying the benefits from the past few years are suddenly left unemployed. A lot of people turn to the different fighting factions to offset their new lot in life, adding an influx of warm bodies to aid their various causes. The typical response unfortunately involves violent crackdowns rather than social reforms and improved government assistance, again adding more fuel to the conflicts.

Argentina and Brazil are the only two countries without serious internal strife. Neither is heavily dependent on the drug trade, and both have invested heavily in their infrastructure allowing them to better handle the new situation. Many countries begin to look upon them with envy. To help secure Brazil against the growing chaos, the U.S. sends a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to aid in securing the interior in January. The Marine units are based out of Mato Grosso, a Brazilian state in the western part of the country near the Bolivian border.

The entirety of the European Union has joined the French coalition save Ireland and Great Britain who declare their neutrality. The U.S. although involved also declares its neutrality in the matter. All of this might be moot as the worst winter in over a century rolls through the region and brings everything to a standstill. There is no Russian ground invasion until the end of February when Russia invades Poland. The severe cold even hinders the naval and aerial war.

Russia waits until both the nuclear fallout and the winter eases before beginning their ground invasion. They launch a three pronged assault on Europe on February 25th. The two divisions from Kaliningrad Oblast strike northern Europe, one marching toward Berlin and the other toward Paris in an attempt to strike at the heart of the EU defense. Army-sized elements from the former Belarus and Ukraine regions strike at central and southern Europe respectively.

In addition to the main attack force, a division of VDV troops (Vozdushno-Desantnye Vojska or Russian Airborne Assault Troops) is airlifted into parts of Western Europe and dropped in small platoon sized elements to disrupt and distract defending forces. Russian VDV troops attack train depots, shipyards and minor manufacturing centers. Using guerilla style tactics they wreak havoc with EU forces in Spain, France and Germany.

A majority of the European forces are in civil emergency mode reacting to Mother Nature when the Russians begin the ground invasion. Although there has been some preparation for the inevitable attack, the severity of the freezing weather forces most countries to focus their attention internally. However, during the winter there are several minor confrontations with EU units as Russian forces probe the Polish border.

Russian forces want to get as far into Europe before the snow and ice start to melt, making travel all but impossible. Modeling their attack after the WWII blitzkrieg style, the Russians make tremendous and rapid headway into Europe. They manage to complete their conquests of Romania and Poland before severe flooding begins.

But they are stalled on the western borders of those countries as the countryside becomes almost completely impassible, with roads and even some small towns washed away (and with resistance from both EU BGs and civilian insurgents picking up). With the bulk of the EU BGs awaiting them, Russian forces settle into containment zones, securing their gains and solidifying their lines.

With the loss of a major supply of oil, natural gas and electricity, this winter is extremely harsh for most Europeans. Many towns and cities are low on fuel, food, medicine and other necessities when the Russians come through. A lot of cities the Russians encounter on their march through Poland and Romania are forced to surrender and side with the Russians just to deal with the realities on the ground.

The delay of ground forces does not stop the naval and aerial war. A major battle for air superiority is waged along with daily bombing attempts from both sides. Unlike the early ground war, the aerial war is a one of attrition with neither side coming out the victor. Several key cities and numerous military assets are targeted and successfully bombed both conventionally and by nuclear weapons during this time on both sides. On the naval front things are not much different than the aerial one. Massive battles take place in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean and the Atlantic.

Restricted availability of fuel and oil, due to both the Great Muslim War and the loss of industry thanks to the EMPs, plus massive combat losses create a problem for both sides. By the summer, both sides are left with few naval and aerial resources and begin to use them sparingly, mostly in support.

While all of this is going on, the U.S. moves all of its military assets from Eastern Europe to central Germany and England to add to their defensive capabilities. For the time being the U.S. officially declares neutrality in the European conflict, but makes preparations for the defense of the European civilian population.

The Islamic Confederation of Nations is ratified by Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan in each of the respective countries by March. The first act of business is to setup a Supreme Council of Elders to lead the confederation. The second act is to raise a coalition force to deal with Iran. This proves more difficult than selecting 50 men to serve on the council due to the terrain and remoteness of many of the regions in this area. It takes six months to raise an army for the purpose of joining the fight against Iran.

Several Middle Eastern nations (Syria, Iran, Jordan and Egypt amongst those attending) hold a May political conference in Jordan. Openly reported to deal with the growing worldwide crisis, its hidden agenda is the formation of a coalition of forces to attack Israel. Although all present welcome the prospect, none save Syria is able to provide anything more than a token force for the task, although Iran agrees to contribute equipment and supplies to the campaign.

The one exception being Egypt, who in the midst of an economic boom, presses for tolerance and peace at this time. With the U.S. being one of their major suppliers of military technology , Egypt finds itself in an awkward position. The desert is harsh on equipment, and parts come in short supply. With the growing conflicts in the region, Egypt sees its safety as a precarious situation.

Although Egypt and Israel had their problems in the past, for the last several years the tensions between them has been at a minimum. Seeing the turn of events unfolding, Egypt decides that Israel is serving as the perfect buffer state between it and more aggressive Arabs. Egypt sends envoys to Israel to warn them of the threat of war from Syria and offers “back door” support.

Before Syria can take its first steps, Israeli air forces target key Syrian military installations, including most of their SCUD and other surface-to-surface missile launch sites. Both Syria and Israel suffer heavy losses in this initial exchange. Almost all of the missile sites are destroyed, but the Israeli Air Force pays a high price suffering at least 50% losses due to heavy anti-aircraft defenses surrounding the targets. The remaining Israeli aerial assets are tied up for the duration of the conflict dealing with numerically superior Syrian air assets. Although able to hold their own, the Israeli Air Force is none-the-less kept from playing a key factor in the ground war.

A mixed regiment of Syrian and Iranian Special Forces infiltrate into Gaza prior to the start of the conference and begin training and equipping Palestinians (including giving them access to small caches of chemical weapons). Once the news of the Israeli pre-emptive strike comes down, they launch a massive assault.

Using scorched earth tactics, they burn a swath through Israel until they reach just outside of Qiryat Gat where they are stopped by Israeli Defense Forces. Survivors slip into the countryside and begin to wage a guerilla war against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in hopes of tying up as many units as possible.

In the meantime, the Syrian Army invades Lebanon in order to reach Israel. Their main focus is to simply use Lebanon as a staging area with the idea of succession as a secondary goal. It takes Syrian units five days to reach the Israeli border and once there engage the IDF in a week long battle. The ensuing battle at Metulla is the largest engagement of modern armor with over 2000 tanks and other Armored Fighting Vehicles (AFVs) committed to the battle. While technologically inferior to the IDF Merkava’s, the T-72s of the Syrian Army are numerically overwhelming. Twice the IDF calls upon reserve units and are close to calling upon a third before the IDF withdraws to Hatzor, and the Syria force retreats back into Lebanon.

For the next couple of months Israel and Syria use Lebanon as their own personal battleground. But things quickly resolve themselves to a stalemate with neither side making any headway.

The spring flooding throughout Europe begins to subside at the end of May. At the first signs of letting up, the Russian forces renew their onslaught through central Europe. This time they are met with heavy resistance from the EU BGs. Casualties are extremely high in these confrontations. The terrain is still hostile to both sides, and several engagements end in draws as natural disasters such as massive mud slides or sinkholes claim both sides.

By mid-June conditions become favorable for conventional warfare. The Russians make hard thrusts into Czech Republic, Germany and Hungary. The central and southern forces fair better than the northern arm, both being able to secure most of the Czech Republic and Hungary. The northern arm enters Germany hoping to assault Berlin from the north. However, the severe winter begins to take its toll on both the Russians and EU BGs. Dwindling food and fuel supplies soon bring the war to a crawl. Many front line units are reduced to rationing and scrounging just to exist, let alone fight. Most of the fighting is shifted to several key fronts, Berlin, Vienna and Udine (the German, Austrian and Italian fronts). As resources become more and more scarce, the fighting slowly evolves into a highly calculating game of chess. Neither force can risk losing men or equipment in an all out battle. Most of the next few months are spent moving units into positions, each jockeying for an advantage before committing to a battle.

In August, Spain informally withdrawals from the EU BG force in order to deal with internal strife. Basque separatists groups armed and trained by Russian Spetsnaz “advisors” begin attacking soft targets and minor military installations, threatening internal security. In one attack they manage to capture a tank company and aided by the Spetsnaz begin attacking more and more military oriented targets. By the end of the year, Spain is enveloped in an internal war of its own.

Iranian Quds Forces penetrate deep into Saudi territory in a daring June raid. Making their way to the Ghawar Field, they manage to destroy 75% of the facilities and ignite many wellheads. It is believed that all members of the Quds Force are captured and executed.

The loss of one of their main oil fields, prompts the Saudis to move to secure their borders and reign in oil production and export. Even without the Saudis pull back, the attack causes a world wide ripple by the loss of almost 7% of the global oil supply. The Saudis cut an additional 25% of their oil exports.

Seeing the writing on the wall, many oil exporting nations also begin to cut their exports. In many cases nations cut off their exports completely. By October, the worldwide supply of oil is less than 50% of what it was before the Ghawar attacks. Many small countries with no oil reserves are force to ration their existing supplies and make concessions and deals with their neighboring nations. This cut and the decrease in overall production cause oil prices to skyrocket to slightly over $500 per barrel.

For the past few years, China has been in an economic and cultural recession. Having lost a huge source of income from foreign manufacturing, coupled with several severe internal disasters (such as the Three Gorges Dam incident), the Chinese government has been looking for ways to stabilize their economy and feed their people. In contrast, many of the other Southeast Asian countries are prospering in the wake of Chinese turmoil.

To prevent outright dissension and revolt, the Chinese President has been televising speeches invoking nationalism and sacrifice for the last few years. Beginning in 2012, the speeches take an ominous turn and began to demonize the fortunes of China’s neighbors and in particular the U.S. (which is blamed for the downfall of the Chinese people). China’s citizens easily take on an extremely xenophobic attitude.

On August 10th, a pair of Chinese submarines, one off each coast of the U.S., launches their contingent of nuclear missiles (almost 100 warheads total) at various targets within the U.S. Even with very little warning, the military manages to shoot down over three dozen warheads before they strike their targets. Several prominent cities are struck including Washington DC, Norfolk, Los Angeles and Chicago (some with multiple hits). At least two high altitude air bursts take place as well. Simultaneously a Chinese cargo ship is scuttled by her crew in the Panama Canal, at the Pedro Miguel Locks. The Chinese boomers are tracked by U.S. submarines. After the launches the Chinese subs are quickly destroyed. This incident fuels conspiracy theories for years to come.

There are only moments of warning before the Chinese nuclear strike. Both the President and Vice President survive. President is at a meeting of the Joint Chiefs at Camp David, and the VP is held at a secret location. Most members of Congress, however, are in the capital and perish in the attack. Only 10 Senators and 50 Congresspersons survive, due to being back in their home districts when the attack happens.

Most federal agencies are decimated: the FBI, Justice Department, the Pentagon, the CIA and including many civilian agencies such as the Postal Service and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). Along with the damage to the civilian and political infrastructure, the attack on Norfolk decimates a good portion of the U.S. Atlantic fleet, not to mention the United States Navy SEa, Air and Land forces (SEAL) community and Command and Control. What remains of the Atlantic fleet, personnel and command structure is forced to move south to Charleston, SC.

The airbursts create EMPs that cover almost the entire continental U.S. as well as portions of southern Canada and northern Mexico. Isolated pockets where the EMPs has little to no effect exist, especially in the deep south.

Six months prior to the attack, China sends a steady stream of 2- to 6-man Special Operations Forces teams via international travel to various cities, and establishes safe houses all over the western U.S. For additional support, they setup rental storage units housing all the weaponry they need to build several light infantry battalions to cause further havoc. Several days before the invasion these light infantry battalions gather into company size elements, equip and prepare to wage a guerilla style campaign against U.S. military forces from within.

Their mission is to engage military targets and delay any American response to China’s SE Asian campaign. Their first targets are lightly guarded National Guard and Reserve centers scattered throughout the western part of the U.S., both to create havoc and to equip themselves with heavier ordnance. Their first few initial raids are overwhelmingly successful both in creating panic and in gaining heavy weapons.

The chaos created by the nuclear attacks provides the perfect distraction for the Chinese attacks. Word quickly spreads of an outright Chinese invasion. With very limited communications and no TV or radio, there’s very little intelligence broadcast to describe the actual size of incursion troops. Both civilian and military organizations prepare for the Chinese invasion. National Guard units in every state are activated. Reserve units are called up across the country as well. Unfortunately, it takes over a week for most units to fully activate.

With the Pentagon destroyed and communications severely compromised, federal armed forces are delayed in responding, which further allows for the Chinese forces to gain success and make deep infiltrating strikes. These initial penetrating strikes are targeted at resupplying food and medical stores. This provides the Chinese forces the much needed to supplies to allow for an extended campaign and buy their comrades valuable time to secure the gains of the true Chinese campaign in the South Pacific.

With reports of attacks coming in from all over the western U.S., the President institutes Martial Law and assumes control of the National Guard (thanks to a bill passed in 2006). Immediately, the states protest, although their pleas go unheeded. Within days, the President also signs into effect several Executive Orders, including splitting the U.S. into regions with military commanders setup to control civilian assets, authorizing the capture and detention of suspected Chinese nationals/sympathizers and suspension of the federal courts. All of which further shift power to the military and away from the states and the federal government.

Once accurate intelligence begins to come in about the Chinese attacks in the west, the military shifts assets and begins sweep and clear operations. These operations often create more chaos that the Chinese attacks. Soon, the Chinese are able to manipulate the military into committing large amounts of resources with very little effort on their part. The military is further hampered due to mass migrations away from the front line areas. The U.S. highway system, built to move military assets in case of an attack, actually begins to work against the military as it becomes clogged with civilian assets. It often takes days to clear routes in some areas.

The federal government, Department of Defense and senior military officials, now basing themselves out of Cheyenne Mountain, Colorado, begin to formulate a defense plan that places Army and Marine forces in reserve and lets National Guard and Reserve units take the lead on dealing with the Chinese attackers.

The use of nuclear weapons is temporarily banned by the President at the beginning of the Chinese attack. Even though the Chinese used nukes against American targets, the President feels that the collateral civilian damage, risk to allies, and the long term effects outweigh their potential military value.

The day after the nuclear attack on U.S. soil, China also successfully launches a series of the next generation of Anti- SATtellite (ASAT) missiles targeting U.S and Japanese imagery intelligence satellites. This effectively shields their movements, build-up and troop locations.

The attack on the U.S. is only the beginning of a major Chinese offensive in the South Pacific. Also borrowing a page from WWII, the Chinese hope the attack on American soil will serve to stay or delay American forces from their quest for expansion and domination of the South Pacific. By the time the Americans enter the battle, China seizes Taiwan and lands assault troops in Korea, Japan, the Philippines and most of SE Asia.

China focuses all of its military might into a series of island hopping operations designed to gain as much ground as possible in the shortest amount of time. The Chinese military commits to multiple simultaneous operations. The first wave involves Taiwan, Korea, Japan and the Philippines. Taiwan falls in just over a week, while the others put up stiff resistance (backed largely by American forces). However, China gains enough ground in each of their initial assaults to gain a strong foothold for continued operations.

The Allied forces of Australia and Great Britain, along with American and Canadian naval assets in the area respond to the Chinese aggression. Chinese forces land their first waves before any counteroffensive is launched. Once the Allied coalition naval forces begin operations against the Chinese, the island hoping campaign is essentially stopped save for those islands already occupied.

The Chinese enact the second phase of their campaign, a ground war throughout SE Asia, starting in Myanmar. A Chinese army over 500,000 strong pours into the country and begins a massive ground invasion, again designed to secure as much ground as possible in the shortest amount of time.

Meanwhile, the U.S. also launches a massive aerial bombardment campaign of Chinese military targets from bases in Japan and Guam. The bombardment lasts for 21 days, while both sides suffer heavy losses in the air. The U.S. does gain a kill-to-loss ratio of 10-1; however, the sheer numbers of the Chinese aircraft engaged after three weeks leaves both sides seriously depleted.

Chinese naval forces are systematically hunted and destroyed by coalition forces. However, the Chinese commit enough air forces to counter the coalition naval forces in the area. In at least three major engagements, the Chinese are able to put up enough aircraft for a 10 to 1 ratio. By the end of the aerial campaign, U.S. and British naval forces are down to only 25% of the original contingent in the region, including the loss of several aircraft carriers. Australian losses are enough to force them to retreat back into national defense roles.

With little to stop further Chinese aggression in the area, the U.S. is left with only one option. From the South China Sea, the USS Kentucky launches her full compliment of two dozen nuclear SLBMs at selected military targets throughout China. At least one warhead is a high altitude detonation over Eastern China producing an EMP burst. Effects of the EMP however are not as devastating as those in the U.S. or Europe because a large portion of the population lives without the conveniences of the west.

The last warhead strikes in the heart of Beijing, resulting in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths. The total death toll from the strikes and the resulting affects is estimated to be in the millions; however, no official count is ever performed.

Radiation from the nuclear attacks is carried across Japan, Korea and even reaches the U.S. mainland. In Japan alone over 20 million people are affected by radiation related illnesses. Many major cities in Japan come to a screeching halt as the radioactive fallout climbs. Several small islands witness a 100% fatality rate due to the fallout. In Guam, almost 60% of the U.S. armed forces stationed there succumb to radiation related illnesses.

Within a week, sickness is reported across the globe. Outside of China, the U.S. and its allies are the hardest hit. The resulting environmental impact from so many nuclear strikes (not to mention those preceding the U.S. and Chinese bombs) results in a unanimous agreement to cease the use of nuclear weapons.

Also, in September, the U.S. president further infuriates the states when he issues an executive order to suspend national elections (after already instituting martial law nationwide), largely due to the chaos caused by the Chinese attack. There simply is no longer a traditional infrastructure with which to hold elections. Most local and state municipalities ignore the EO and proceed with their own elections.

In another controversial move, the President sends the military into the larger cities to disrupt and squash the elections. During several incidents the military fires upon the pollsters in an attempt to breakup the elections. Riots quickly breakout in several cities, including Atlanta, Dallas and Detroit. Even with the federal interference, almost every district is able to elect a new Congress.

The 113th U.S. Congress sets up in Sioux City, Iowa. Due to the current state of the U.S. and the apparent abuses of power, many people begin calling this the Third Continental Congress. Their first order of business is to pass laws declaring the current military control unconstitutional and return power to the civilian government. This creates a conflict between the civilian government and military control, dubbed by some as a conflict of wills between the Civgov and Milgov.

On Sept. 21st, forces from the Islamic Confederation of Nations invade Iran in an effort to seize the Khorasan region. Since this region’s major ethnic groups include Uzbeks and Tajiks, the theory is that many will rise up and join the coalition forces to fight against the Shi’ite Theocracy. Recruitment is a necessary action, since the invading force numbers only 30,000 in light infantry, light armor and virtually no air support. This assumption does not prove to be true, and by the end of the year, the ICN forces reach no further than Mashhad and settle in to a well defined containment zone. As far as the ICN is concerned their mission is somewhat successful since they have now tied Iran into a two-front war.

After the initial surge of conflict in Europe, the war becomes relatively peaceful. With little supplies and reduced numbers, Russian and EU BG units settle into containment zones along the line of conflict. By November most actions are simple meeting engagements by elements scrounging for supplies. There will not be another major action undertaken by either side until next spring.

With the winter approaching, Canada begins to destabilize. Southern Canadian cities are without power due to the EMPs (and thus heat). Riots begin; neighbor turns on neighbor for basic supplies, and desertion rates skyrocket as service members rush home to help loved ones. Not wishing to witness another season like the Nuclear Winter of 2011, Canadians look to escape to a warmer climate and begin heading south. At first the influx of “refugees” is welcomed (mainly for their pocketbooks). But by October the influx turns into a flood. The strain on increasingly diminishing supplies becomes too much for some communities to withstand, and the welcome quickly wears out.

At first there is an attempt to close the borders and beef up security to stop the flood. It soon becomes evident that short of a military force there was no way to really stop it. “Concerned” citizens begin to take up the cause. Men with guns soon begin patrolling the border region. At first the civilian border patrol’s goals are to detain and deport. As the problem grew worse and as news trickled in from the west about the Chinese “invasion”, the detainings eventually turn into shootings. It isn’t long before the shootings turn into executions.

Once word spreads throughout Canadian of the atrocities taking place across the border, Canadians begin crossing the border armed. They even go so far as to stop at abandoned army posts for heavy weapons (several tanks are even commandeered in this effort) all in order to protect themselves. This move is seen as aggressive by both the citizen patrols and the military, which sends additional units to the border.

The International Bridge, in International Falls, MN., collapses with over 400 Canadians trying to cross into the U.S. Witnesses report two large explosions on the bridge and a jet flying overhead. The U.S. explanation of the “explosions” is that the bridge’s support columns gave way e, while the jets were merely defensive measures against the armed Canadians.

On November 13th, heavily armed Canadians (with several Leopard tanks) take up positions overlooking the Sweetgrass, MT Border Crossing Station. As border patrols attempt to stop approximately 10,000 people from crossing, the Canadian tanks fire several warning shots over the station. The U.S. units respond with fire and the Canadians with yet even more fire. Within 20 minutes the firefight is over, and the Canadian forces move across the border securing the crossing.

For the next few months, several more “Sweetgrass” incidents take place. Each one ends with more and more armed Canadians (AC or Albert Charles as they are called) crossing into the U.S. Once inside, there continue to be armed encounters with U.S. defense forces. By the end of December, the AC engagements outweigh Chinese ones.

While all of the chaos is happening in the U.S., there is still a need for produced goods. With manufacturing at a stand still in the U.S., the still functioning Mexican power grid proves too valuable an asset to ignore. The U.S. Army sends 10 Brigade Combat Teams (BCT) south of the border to secure manufacturing plants in Mexico. The plants are also reorganized for wartime production rather than for children’s toys and cheap home appliances. On November 25th, elements from the Mexican army move to repel the invaders.

The Mexican army is devastated in an awesome display of technological advantage and tactical prowess by the U.S. Army. By mid-December the Mexican army within the area of occupation is totally destroyed. The U.S. presses the attack and moves further south in an effort to stave off any further incursions. By the time the U.S. military stops, it secures the entire area north of the 24th parallel and proceeds to settle into a defensive posture. The Mexican military begins a guerilla war against its occupiers. Hit and run attacks will be a constant presence over the next few months. In mid-2013 the Mexican army is augmented by troops from Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, who see the American incursion as an affront to the whole region. Although the Mexican army does little to oust the American invaders, they manage to cause high casualty rates among the units securing the region.

With the reduction of oil from the Middle East and South America, the U.S. armed forces are forced to restrict the types and strength of operations they run. These restrictions are not just for operations in North America but those against the Chinese in SE Asia as well. Chinese ground forces take advantage and are able to edge out their defender and gain more areas of control. By the end of the year, the Chinese have full control over Myanmar and are moving east.

In South America, the situation goes from bad to worse as the U.S. drug market all but shrivels up. An American Army presence in northern Mexico along with the chaos caused by the EMP cuts exports to about 20% of what they used to be. The economies of countries tied to U.S. and European commercial (and illegal) trade hit rock bottom by year’s end. Critical services such as hospitals, police, fire, etc. are cut to the bone and many tragedies result.

After the shutting down of the Panama Canal, Venezuela and Peru also are forced to deal with the tens of thousands of refugees fleeing the threat of war with China. These refugees put further strain on the already stretched resources and economy of these countries and force them to take similar actions as North America and Europe when they faced mass migrations. Peru strengthens its border presence to thwart the refugee flood, while Venezuela welcomes the refugees through conscription into the military. After only a month, Venezuela strengthens their military by 20,000.

Venezuela uses this opportunity to turn its people against enemies of the state rather than the government. After years of pomp and rhetoric, the Venezuelan president, through speeches of heroic proportions, convinces his people that food, wealth and opportunity exist, but they must be willing to take it. In October, the Venezuelan army crosses the border into Guyana and marches all the way to French Guiana by the end of the year. The Venezuelan navy also takes to the sea and begins to take Caribbean islands one by one from Venezuela to Cuba.

This action prompts a token response from the U.S. and Europe due to their own current situations. Not willing to shift valuable resources away from homeland defense, the U.S. sends only an Expeditionary Strike Group to tackle the Venezuelan navy. This is enough however to create a stalemate and tie up Venezuelan naval forces from advancing further north.

The U.S. MEU in Brazil is sent to French Guiana to repel the Venezuelan invading force. Although outnumbered, their technological advantage allows the Marines succeed in forcing the Venezuelan army to retreat into Suriname. Pressing forward, the Marines attempt to continue to drive the Venezuelan army back. Unfortunately, the supply train for the MEU begins to dry up, and they are forced into a practice of battlefield salvage, thus ending their technological advantage. Still superior in training and tactics but severely outnumbered, they too are effectively forced into a stalemate situation in Suriname.

2013

The winter of 2012-2013 is even more brutal than that of the Nuclear Winter of 2011, thanks in part to the nuclear attacks initiated by China. One additional phenomenon witnessed this winter is the Oakland Flu-a global outbreak of a mutation of H3N2 (“swine fl u”), a relative of the virus that caused the 20th century’s Spanish Flu pandemic. Over the course of the winter almost 200 million people fall victim to its effects. The first major cases start popping up in Oakland, CA among captured Chinese soldiers then rapidly proliferates throughout the civilian population, who then spread it across the U.S., Mexico and Canada. Eventually it multiplies to Europe and South America.

England and Ireland, while not active participants in the Euro- Russo War end up being as devastated as many of the nations who actively take part in it. The winter of 2012 blankets England and Ireland in over 10 ft of snow and temperatures below the 0° C mark for almost three straight months. The death toll in London alone is estimated at 100,000 just from the freezing temperatures.

After numerous Israeli air strikes against Syrian targets, two SCUD missile launch sites manage to survive. However, Syria awaited delivery of a very special payload from Iran. Due to their involvement in the Great Muslim War, Iran’s shipment was delayed. This payload is finally delivered on January 1st. On February 1st, Syria launches six “dirty” SCUD missiles laden with nuclear material from Iran, all targeting Tel Aviv. All 6 make it through Israeli defense systems and strike heavily populated civilian districts. The dirty nature of the attack sets off a nationwide panic and increases public demand for Israeli officials to take steps to end the Syrian aggression.

In retaliation for the dirty bombing of Tel Aviv, Israel publicly announces that they are indeed a nuclear power by dropping one of their nuclear bombs on Damascus. Unfortunately rather than causing Syria to back down, the nuclear attack creates uproar throughout the Muslim nations of the region. Within a week Jordan and Saudi Arabia throw money, men and equipment at the Israeli “problem”.

While facing eminent extinction, Israel receives a special offer of life from Egypt. Egypt offers to set aside an area within the newly converted desert border area with Libya in exchange for Israeli military power and experience, including their remaining nuclear arsenal. Egypt’s sole agenda is to secure the Canal Zone and defend her borders against the east and south. Israel, while militarily superior, knows the sheer numbers being thrown at them means defeat is inevitable. Reluctantly, the political and military commands agree and begin a great exodus into Egypt. However, many pockets of civilian resistance refuse to leave. Some conservative estimates put this percentage at around 40% of the populace.

It takes three weeks to evacuate the majority to Egypt. Several IDF forces remain behind to cover the exodus, destroy valuable military assets (buildings, manufacturing, etc.) and to defend as they could those civilians who refused to leave. For about a week after the exodus these units regularly report back, then there is silence. Due to strict crackdowns on journalists within the country, no news escapes the region after mid-March.

Seeing weakness from China, India presses into the disputed areas between the two nations. Emboldened by the lack of resistance, India presses further inland not just in the previously disputed area, but along its entire border.

In early February, Russia sends an old Akula submarine to aid Venezuela against the U.S. interdictions in the Caribbean. Armed with several RU-100 (SS-N-16) 20 kt nukes, the sub launches one of its missiles as soon as it comes within range of the Florida Keys. Targeting Naval Air Station (NAS) Key West, the Russian sub attempts to deprive the U.S. of an Armament Systems Wing (ASW) base.

The sub continues up the Florida coast striking Miami before heading further north toward Charleston, SC. U.S. naval elements manage to intercept the Akula, and after several days of “playing hide and seek” they manage to sink her off the north Florida coast.

Before she goes down, the sub launches one more strike against coastal targets, hitting Savannah, GA.

The spring brings with it a chance for a renewed effort by both sides on the European front. Russia prepares for one last big push into Germany and Italy in hopes of finally breaking through the resistance. EU BGs prepare to stage several large pushes into Russian occupied territories in order to break their holds and disrupt their supply chain, forcing them to withdrawal.

Needing oil and gas in order to survive another year, England reluctantly agrees to enter the war on the EU side. Two brigades of Royal marines are mustered (although it takes cannibalizing quite a few units to form the brigades due to the winter devastation).

Incensed with the Russian nuclear attack, American forces in the United Kingdom (UK) side with them and take part in the operation. As soon as the brigades are formed, the navies set sail with a sizeable fleet heading to Murmansk. The daring move is designed to hit the Russians from behind drawing their attention away from the frontline with Europe, while at the same time giving England a chance to raid for much needed supplies.

Russia also augments their front lines, by shifting interior forces to the front during the winter. Russian forces then stage a two front surge, one toward Berlin and the other one toward Vienna. Both assaults run head first into an EU counteroffensive. Simultaneously the allied British and American navy assaults Murmansk. Due to the extreme winters and the fact that the Russian navy is almost non-existent at this point, the marines make headway. They manage to secure Murmansk and the Kola Peninsula within the first week and proceed to march south. Unfortunately the supplies at Murmansk were already raided by the Russian army and what little civilian population tried to ride out the winters. The Allied navy does not have enough supplies to return or even carry out additional movements, so they choose to fortify at the Severomorsk naval base.

They manage to make it as far south as Kem before meeting any sizable resistance from the Russian Army. Allied forces manage to setup a solid defensive perimeter and within a month settle into containment and effectively hold everything north of Kem. Along the European frontlines fighting is intense; however, neither side is able to gain headway over the other. Within a month the frontlines stabilize into pretty much the same areas as before the surges. The offensives officially wrap up by May, and both sides settle into a stalemate situation, lacking enough resources to cause any further effective progress.

The New Year is an ambitious one for the U.S. military. Having spent the winter planning, supplying and recruiting, the army is prepared to make targeted thrusts on all three fronts. With low fuel reserves though, it takes 3 months to position men and equipment for their assault. This is precious time that is put to good use by their enemies as they dig in and fortify their positions. The U.S. sends an additional battalion of troops and a company of Abrams tanks to strengthen the force protecting the manufacturing centers in Mexico. This allows the military to perform search and destroy missions, expanding their zone of controls. Out of the three offenses, this move turns out to be the most successful.

The Chinese infiltrators have plenty of time to secure their positions and prepare for any offensive to dislodge them from their gains. The Chinese add hit-and-run and insurgent style tactics against the Americans all along their trek through the west. By the time the Americans reach any of the Chinese defensive perimeters, they end up being down to about half supplies and low on fuel. Within a month of fighting, the U.S. army shifts their focus from ousting the invaders to containing them.

The Canadian offensives end in the same result for the U.S. army. With plenty of time to prepare, the Canadians make great use of the winter snow melting. With rivers and creeks over fl owing and clear terrain all but impassable due to mud, this leaves only well paved roads for transport. With enough time, the Canadians setup roadblock after roadblock, obstacle after obstacle and purposely destroy most of the main arteries to and from the north.

In February, an additional Army enters into the North American conflict. A large Russian Army contingent invades Alaska. Their intent appears to merely be to secure U.S. oil sources. They are able to reach Juno before meeting any resistance. The city is mostly deserted, and the Russians are able to setup Juno as a rear headquarters. From there they launch raids against Canadian and American forces. Both militaries put up token resistance, however, neither are able to mount an effective counteroffensive.

By May, all American offensives wind to a halt. The Americans lose very little to casualties along the way, but spend more supplies than they had anticipated. The fuel shortages force them to ditch about 75% of their vehicles, and those remaining are sent to the rear and used sparingly. Ammunition supply is also running low. Most soldiers only have 1-2 magazines worth of ammo left when the stalemate happens. Attrition becomes the name of the game.

The situation in the U.S. steadily deteriorates even before the failed offensives. Cities throughout the U.S. are effectively acting as their own city states. With a stable population of people who are able to survive in the current situation, the southeast fairs much better than the rest of the U.S. While not official until after the disillusion of the Union, the southeastern U.S. revives the idea of a loose confederation of states. Most northern cities are simply abandoned due to both the Canadian threat and the severe winters. Urban areas are the worst; there just isn’t a way to survive once the power goes out.

Engaged at four front lines in North American (not to mention the additional fronts throughout the world), the U.S. is also dealing with growing conflict between the Civgov and Milgov. In May, Georgia declares its sovereign right for independence against what they see as an unconstitutional military controlled government. With forces stretched thin, the Milgov is unable to deal with the secession. Soon after, other southern states (Mississippi, North and South Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas) also declare their independence. The U.S. is not alone in this situation; many other foreign governments strain under their current conditions. It is not uncommon for federal governments to simply disappear and leave things in total anarchy.

On July 4th, 2013 the president of the United States delivers his “Good Luck” speech. This speech is picked up by ham operators around the world and rebroadcast through every available method of communication. Although the U.S. has for all practical purposes ceased to exist for some months now, this speech officially marks the end of the last great super power.