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| | This page is for use in keeping notes about my PSBL simulation baseball league team. Rather than setting up another wiki, I figured this was a better way to do it. | | This page is for use in keeping notes about my PSBL simulation baseball league team. Rather than setting up another wiki, I figured this was a better way to do it. |
| | | | |
| | + | [[PSCB Notes]] are located here |
| | =Roster= | | =Roster= |
| | The following players are the ones that matter, Im skipping the scrubs. | | The following players are the ones that matter, Im skipping the scrubs. |
| | <br><div align=center>St Louis Cardinals</div><br> | | <br><div align=center>St Louis Cardinals</div><br> |
| − | C John Buck<br>
| + | |
| − | C Kenji Johjima <br>
| + | 1B Albert Pujols <br> |
| − | 1B Albert Pujols<br>
| + | 2B Orlando Hudson <br> |
| − | 2B Tadahito Iguchi<br>
| + | SS Miguel Tejada<br> |
| − | 3B Corey Koskie<br> | + | 3B Scott Rolen <br> |
| − | SS Orlando Cabrera<br>
| + | 3B Jorge Cantu<br> |
| − | LF Moises Alou<br>
| + | C Taylor Teagarden<br> |
| − | RF JD Drew<br>
| + | C Brayan Pena<br> |
| − | CF Kenny Lofton<br>
| + | C David Ross<br> |
| − | CF David DeJesus<br>
| + | C Ivan Rodriguez <br> |
| − | DH Travis Hafner<br>
| + | IF Ben Zobrist<br> |
| − | MI Ramon Martinez<br>
| + | LF Bobby Abreu<br> |
| − | 3B Eric Hinske<br>
| + | LF Jonny Gomes<br> |
| − | OF Joe Borchard<br>
| + | LF Chase Headley<br> |
| − | UTL Eric Young<br>
| + | RF JD Drew <br> |
| − | P John Lackey<br>
| + | DH Travis Hafner <br> |
| − | P Greg Maddux<br> | + | DH Jason Kubel<br> |
| − | P Jake Westbrook<br> | + | P Dan Haren<br> |
| | + | P John Lackey <br> |
| | P Josh Beckett <br> | | P Josh Beckett <br> |
| − | P Jeff Weaver <br> | + | P Kevin Millwood<br> |
| − | P Scott Downs <br> | + | P Jon Garland<br> |
| − | P Jason Frasor <br> | + | P Pedro Martinez<br> |
| − | P Akinori Otsuka<br> | + | P Bartolo Colon<br> |
| − | P Brian Fuentes<br> | + | P Phil Hughes<br> |
| − | P Joe Nathan<br> | + | P Trever Miller<br> |
| | + | P Rafael Betancourt<br> |
| | + | P Jeff Samardzija<br> |
| | + | P Kerry Wood<br> |
| | + | P Francisco Rodriguez <br> |
| | + | P Huston Street<br> |
| | | | |
| | <br>Reserve Roster<br> | | <br>Reserve Roster<br> |
| − | OF Sammy Sosa<br>
| |
| − | C Humberto Quintero<br>
| |
| − | P Chris George<br>
| |
| − | OF Tim Raines Jr<br>
| |
| − | C Brayan Pena
| |
| | | | |
| − | I have cleaned up this page and moved all the old information to [[PSBL Archive]].
| + | OF Brian Barton<br> |
| | + | C Michael Barrett<br> |
| | + | P Boof Bonser<br> |
| | + | P Derrick Turnbow<br> |
| | + | P Akinori Otsuka<br> |
| | | | |
| − | =Pre Season Deals=
| |
| − | We need to get a backup IF who can hit, an OF who can hit lefties and has a lot of plate apps, and to replace Jeff Weaver.
| |
| | | | |
| − | ==Claudio Vargas==
| + | I have cleaned up this page and moved all the old information to [[PSBL Archive]]. |
| − | I have no idea what to offer yet. | + | |
| | | | |
| − | ==Curt Schilling== | + | ==Strengths== |
| − | I offered Jeff Weaver for Schilling straight up. I would be willing to include a prospect as well, but I dont think its worth that much. I think Weaver can have a big year in Safeco.
| + | Solid defense. Excellent offense. Best playoff rotation in the league. |
| | + | ==Weaknesses== |
| | + | No high use catcher. Thin relief. |
| | | | |
| − | ==Kenny Rogers== | + | =Plan= |
| − | I am thinking Johjima and Weaver for Rogers and Posada. This would greatly improve their youth and help us immensely this year. That would catapult us up near the top I think.
| + | Go for it and get back to the winning ways of yore. |
| | | | |
| − | ==Woody Williams== | + | =Pre Season Deals= |
| − | I dont know if he is worth Weaver by himself.
| + | What follows are all of the deals I have considered seriously. Some have been offered, some have not. |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==John Smoltz==
| + | |
| − | He has overvalued Smoltz in the past, but who knows?
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Kevin Mench==
| + | |
| − | He fits the bill in the OF.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Juan Rivera==
| + | |
| − | Why the hell is his name constantly on this list? I think he would be great filling in all over the place in the OF and even DHing now and again. With his injury, his value should be down. I have my fingers crossed.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Marco Scutaro/Pablo Ozuna==
| + | |
| − | The Cubs have both of these guys, and getting one would help a lot. He is unpredictable to trade with, however.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | =Team Building Philosophy=
| + | |
| − | Since we had that mini-discussion about team stuff, I figured it might be good to get my thoughts written. This way we can find where we differ, and then bridge that gap and hopefully improve our ability to field a great team and win games.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Offense==
| + | |
| − | I prefer to have a lot of speed at the top of the lineup, but OBP is more important. I prefer no more than 3-4 right handed hitters if possible. The #4 hitter should be a RH with a lot of power and good OBP, Pujols is the ideal #4 in my opinion. The #3 hitter should have great OBP, good average and good power and be a switch hitter or LH. The #5 hitter should be a LH batter with great power and OBP. I prefer not to stack more than 2 RH batters in a row, there are so many relievers that get them out, make the opponent either have a guy who is good vs both sides or use 2 relievers.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Defense==
| + | |
| − | I prefer range over sure-handedness. I dont mind some errors if it means the guy gets to a lot of balls. In the OF I really like guys who can throw. With as much value as I place on taking an extra base for free, having an OF who can prevent it is a nice bonus, and often isnt too expensive. I really prefer a C who can throw, if he cant the pitching staff needs to be tailored.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Pitching==
| + | |
| − | I prefer to have one left handed starter and one left handed reliever. Its crucial that both be good vs both sides, because they are so easy to min-max. The #1 starter must be right handed and dominant both ways. The closer must not blow games, those are wins thrown away. A bad start can be overcome, but a blown save is very difficult (less innings to work with) to beat.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Bench==
| + | |
| − | I prefer to only carry 2 C so there are enough spaces to platoon a couple of guys and have some bats when needed. No more than one of the reserve OF should be veterans, and all of the reserve OF should have big bats vs at least one side. Its great to have a real fast pinch runner too.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Overall Philosophy==
| + | |
| − | I prefer a well rounded approach to a team with one big strength. It seems to be much more difficult to stop a team that does a lot of things, than one that concentrates on one.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | =Mathematical Analysis of Lineup Choices=
| + | |
| − | This should not be construed as a justification of why my method is better than yours. I dont believe it could ever be proved either way. What I have done his is offer a mathematical analysis of the foundation of my reasoning.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Assumptions==
| + | |
| − | The analysis ceases to be simple of some assumptions concerning remote possibilities are included, therefore I have made this section to elucidate the foundation assumptions of this analysis.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | No one hits into a double play <br>
| + | |
| − | No one is thrown out stealing<br>
| + | |
| − | No errors occur<br>
| + | |
| − | Big innings are ignored (5+ batters come to the plate)<br>
| + | |
| − | Everyone reaches base at a constant rate based solely on their OB% vs right handed pitchers
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Definitions==
| + | |
| − | I am defining a run scoring opportunity as one where Pujols comes to bat with someone on base. This will also include the times when one of the players preceding Albert has hit a HR or been driven in by one of the other batters. Rather than completing the analysis that is required to remove those, I will have them included because those were also run scoring opportunities, and they were converted to runs.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Run producers are defined by the magnitude of their OPS. In actuality I have been working on a better formula that takes into account the league averages, and weights OB differently than SLG compared to their respective norms. I also would need to weight AVG differently than the BB portion of OB, since nobody scores from 2nd on a BB. I havent finished that yet, so I will use simple OPS.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Hypothesis==
| + | |
| − | It is most effective to put the three best OB players in front of the two greatest run producers to increase run production.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===Analysis===
| + | |
| − | In this model the lineup is structured as in the MP I made. In any inning where Lofton leads off, Pujols has a 76.7% chance of coming to bat, and this would, by definition be a run scoring opportunity. In any inning Iguchi leads off, Pujols has a 62.5% chance of coming to bat with a run scoring opportunity. When Drew leads off an inning, the chance is 41.0%. If we assume all of these instances are equally likely (the chance of any batter making the final out is equally distributed), the chance of Albert having a run scoring opportunity is 60.1%. This means that if he receives 700 plate apps batting 4th, he will have 421 run scoring opportunities.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ====Weaknesses====
| + | |
| − | The highest probability of Albert getting a run scoring opportunity is when Lofton leads off. This is given equal weight in the analysis because we dont know how many right handed pitchers we will face, even though it is the most likely occurrance, because every one of these games begins with it, then the rest are of equal probability.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Hypothesis==
| + | |
| − | The best hitter should bat first to increase his plate appearances.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Additional Assumptions==
| + | |
| − | The bottom portion of the lineup is equivalent to the MP I generated.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ===Analysis===
| + | |
| − | Albert bats first, so never has a run scoring opportunity during the 1st inning. His chance of having a run scoring opportunity when Koskie leads off an inning is 71.9%. The chance when Alou leads off is 56.2% and when Cabrera leads off it is 34.2%. To give them equal weight his run scoring opportunity chance is 54.1%.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | If we assume he will get 750 plate appearances over the course of the year, this yields 406 run scoring opportunities. This is actually flawed because we know that 160 of the plate apps will not take place with a run scoring opportunity, because they lead off the game.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | ==Discussion==
| + | |
| − | Is this analysis accurate? I dont know. All I know is this is the logic I have always used, though I never understood it as fully as I do now. Before you mentioned it, I just did what I saw MLB managers do and sprinkled in my own ideas. I remember seeing your lineup with Bonds leading off and wondering why you had done it. It never occurred to me that increasing his plate apps might generate more run production.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | =Data=
| + | |
| − | I dont know if I mentioned that I am insane, if I didnt, consider yourself warned. I continued to research the best possible lineup and eventually found this [http://www.sportsquant.com/baseballapp.htm]. It allows you to input a lineup and switch the players around and see how many runs this lineup will score. If I am understanding it correctly it places the lineup against MLB teams, probably National League. So it wont predict PSBL runs, but it can be used to extrapolate the number of runs one lineup will score relative to another.
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | I entered 3 different lineups, the standard one I made previously, the OPS model and the OB model similar to those I emailed you. I then ran them through the simulator in 10 batches of 1000 trials each, and came up with the following numbers:
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | Standard: 6.898<br>
| + | |
| − | OPS model: 6.882 <br>
| + | |
| − | OB model: 6.992
| + | |
| − | | + | |
| − | So the OB model has fared the best. Of course, this cannot take into account the handedness of the batters. Another thing I did is compare the standard lineup with the most common substitutions, which brought these numbers:
| + | |
| | | | |
| − | Hinske instead of Koskie: 6.990 <br>
| + | ==Stephen Drew== |
| − | Borchard instead of Alou: 6.822 <br>
| + | I cant remember who I was getting in the OF to facilitate this, but I am considering offering Tejada and Abreu for Stephen Drew and a good reliever, like Soria. |
| − | DeJesus instead of Alou: 6.777
| + | |
| | | | |
| − | This says to me that We should not use DeJesus in LF unless both Alou and Borchard are used, or in blowouts. It also brings Hinske up as the #1 3B over Koskie. Unless of course, the difference can be made up by defense. My intuition is it could, but when I did the numbers if both were used equally for half a season, Hinske would drive in almost 7 more weighted runs. I doubt Koskie will save 7 runs with his glove in that time period, though it is possible. I might do some analysis to this effect later.
| + | ==Pick 15== |
| | + | I have offered Headley and K-Rod for pick 15 and Olivo. I have also guaranteed him I-Rod for a 7th or 8th rounder to fill his eligibility if he so chooses after we get our lists done. He said this is a good offer he is considering among two others. |
| | | | |
| − | ==Defensive Conjectures== | + | ==Aramis Ramirez== |
| − | I dont know how accurately DMB simulates actual defense, but if I assume it will perfectly simulate the differences between Hinske and Koskie, the following will occur (in half a season):
| + | Jon offered me Ramirez for Hughes and Teagarden. This messes up my C situation, but if I get Olivo its moot. I could also counter with pick 15 if he wants that. |
| | | | |
| − | Koskie commit 12 errors, Hinske will commit none
| + | ==Jay Bruce== |
| − | Koskie will get 24 more putouts
| + | Whatever. Matt is on crack. Still, Im tenacious and as dumb as a sack of hammers hanging from a fencepost. I am considering offering Rolen, Cantu and Kerry Wood for Bruce. |
| − | Koskie will get 56 more assists
| + | |
| | | | |
| − | That is basically giving the opponent almose one extra baserunner every game, about 6 per series. Maybe it is worth those 7 runs.
| + | =First Round Pick Possibilities= |
| | + | In the first round we have pick 4. I want to try and move up to 1 as well as acquire pick 5. |
| | | | |
| − | ==Analysis== | + | ==Best Players Available== |
| − | These numbers seem to indicate that the OB model could be superior to the model I normally use, to the tune of a little over 15 runs per season. It does not take into account things such as speed (how useful are Loftons steals in the middle of the lineup?), or ease of the opponent to manage against our lineup (left handed batters hit significantly lower vs left handers than the analog for right handers). Can these two factors combine to produce more than 15 runs over the course of a season?
| + | 1. Matt Wieters<br> |
| | + | 2. Rick Porcello<br> |
| | + | 3. Tommy Hanson<br> |
| | + | 4. Neftali Feliz<br> |
| | + | 5. Andrew McCuthchen<br> |
| | + | 6. Gordon Beckham<br> |
| | + | 7. Elvis Andrus<br> |
| | + | 8. Colby Rasmus<br> |
| | + | 9. Chris Coghlan<br> |
| | + | 10. Matt LaPorta<br> |
| | + | <br><br> |
| | + | ===Others=== |
| | + | Nolan Reimold<br> |
| | + | Jordan Schafer<br> |
| | + | Fernando Martinez<br> |
| | + | Tommy Hunter<br> |
| | + | Wade Davis<br> |
| | + | Chris Tillman<br> |
| | + | Brian Matusz<br> |
| | + | Andrew Bailey<br> |
| | | | |
| − | I say yes. Mostly because of the lack of good pinch hitters on our team and the significant decrease in OPS versus lefties I believe that the relief matchups alone will accomplish this. Only once per 10 games would a left hander need to come in for multiple batters and cost a single run for the model to underperform enough to negate its advantage. | + | I think you have to put Beckham on this list. In the PSCB, none of these players were available, except Hanson, but Beckham went first and Hanson third> I like him better than Rasmus and La Porta. |
| | | | |
| − | I had a great time doing this analysis. If you have any more for me to do, by all means, suggest it. | + | I need a CF really bad, but I thought McCutchen was on a team, but since he is not, thats my guy. |
This page is for use in keeping notes about my PSBL simulation baseball league team. Rather than setting up another wiki, I figured this was a better way to do it.
The following players are the ones that matter, Im skipping the scrubs.
Solid defense. Excellent offense. Best playoff rotation in the league.
No high use catcher. Thin relief.
What follows are all of the deals I have considered seriously. Some have been offered, some have not.
I cant remember who I was getting in the OF to facilitate this, but I am considering offering Tejada and Abreu for Stephen Drew and a good reliever, like Soria.
I have offered Headley and K-Rod for pick 15 and Olivo. I have also guaranteed him I-Rod for a 7th or 8th rounder to fill his eligibility if he so chooses after we get our lists done. He said this is a good offer he is considering among two others.
Jon offered me Ramirez for Hughes and Teagarden. This messes up my C situation, but if I get Olivo its moot. I could also counter with pick 15 if he wants that.
Whatever. Matt is on crack. Still, Im tenacious and as dumb as a sack of hammers hanging from a fencepost. I am considering offering Rolen, Cantu and Kerry Wood for Bruce.
In the first round we have pick 4. I want to try and move up to 1 as well as acquire pick 5.
1. Matt Wieters
2. Rick Porcello
3. Tommy Hanson
4. Neftali Feliz
5. Andrew McCuthchen
6. Gordon Beckham
7. Elvis Andrus
8. Colby Rasmus
9. Chris Coghlan
10. Matt LaPorta
I think you have to put Beckham on this list. In the PSCB, none of these players were available, except Hanson, but Beckham went first and Hanson third> I like him better than Rasmus and La Porta.
I need a CF really bad, but I thought McCutchen was on a team, but since he is not, thats my guy.
