PSBL Notes

This page is for use in keeping notes about my PSBL simulation baseball league team. Rather than setting up another wiki, I figured this was a better way to do it.

Roster

The following players are the ones that matter, Im skipping the scrubs. Each player in this heading is either slated to be protected, on the bubble or worthy of inclusion in some trade or another. Eventually I might make individual player pages for increased discussion ability.

St Louis Cardinals

1B Albert Pujols
2B Tadahito Iguchi
3B Corey Koskie
SS Orlando Cabrera
LF Moises Alou
RF JD Drew
CF Coco Crisp
DH Travis Hafner
OF Milton Bradley
P Scott Kazmir
P Greg Maddux
P Brad Penny
P Josh Beckett
P Joe Nathan

The Bubble
CN David Bell
UTL Mike Morse
OF Todd Linden
C Mike Lieberthal

Protected List

I believe cutting Lieberthal and Bell, while shortfalling us on eligibility, will greatly improve the draft position and help the team. Neither player looks like more than a 7th round value to me, most likely they can be retreived when call-ups resume in the draft. Its possible one will be lost, but so be it.

Positions and Needs

The primary need is pitching. Kazmir is the only starter that could be considered dominant, and Maddux is the only other that is even above average this year. Beckett and Penny both have good future value, and Penny is relatively usable this year as well. Nathan is probably the best closer in baseball this year, and is in his prime.

Besides pitching third base and center field are mild needs, along with catcher. Crisp is good defensively but had an injury plagued year and has an anemic .702 OPS (worse vs R). His speed is nice and he is young enough to still have excellent value. At third base Bell is great defensively and has a respectible .337 OB, but has no slugging to speak of, he also brings a lot of plate apps to the table. Koskie is a thumper vs R, and solid defensively, for about half a season. He can be conserved by batting him low in the lineup and subbing Bell in when possible. Lieberthal is solid all around but only good for about half a season and could retire.

The tertiary need is young talent. The team has an acceptable amount of young players, but it is quite possible many could be dealt to increase this years title potential. If that doesnt happen, this team is a playoff also-ran.

Trades

I have already made some offers to other teams that would need to be honored if accepted. Barring that, everything here is to be discussed.

Proposed Deals

The following deals have already been proposed to owners. Some have been shelved until the ratings arrive. Others are just awaiting response.

Bobby Abreu

I have offered the Tigers Coco Crisp and the first round selection for Bobby Abreu. He said he was intersted depending on the defensive ratings. I suspect Abreu should be FR or less in CF, and Crisp should be VG or EX. That bodes well for this deal. If completed, it would give us a dominant #3 hitter with unlimited plate apps who is in the prime of his career.

Looks like this deal is dead. Here was his offer: Your first round pick, Coco Crisp, and Scott Kazmir for Bobby Abreu, John Buck and Jarrod Washburn. That doesnt sound close to me.

Aubrey Huff

I believe this deal to be dead.

Manny Ramirez

I have offered Josh Beckett and choice of Milton Bradley or Luis Gonzalez for Manny Ramirez and John Smoltz. This deal is a potential blockbuster. Manny would be huge between Pujols and Hafner, and it would push the offense to the next level. Smoltz is better now, though nearing the end. The team gets much older but has greatly increased star power and a fearsome offense. He responded that he is considering it. He likes Beckett a lot and has made offers for him in the past.

He has not returned the last couple of emails. I think this deal is still possible, albeit at the draft. I think it becomes even more possible if Manny ends up away from the Sox, as is currently rumored.

Torii Hunter

Technically this belongs in the potential deals because it hasnt been offered, but it is related to this one here. If he decides against the Manny deal I would like to offer the same deal with Gonzalez on our side and Hunter instead of Manny. Its not the same kind of blockbuster, but Hunter is a great defensive player who is improving offensively and is younger. Its potentially even better for the team.

Chad Bradford

I offered Todd Linden and Mike Morse for Chad Bradford. I like Linden's talent but he would be hard to protect, and Bradford had a great year but is just a journeyman. This could help having another reliever in the fold.

Justin Verlander

Our best pitcher is Kazmir, who in many ways is similar to Verlander (age etc). Verlander has more starts, and will be an EX hold. He is also very stacked vs one side, which limits his playoff value. Kazmir is reasonable vs both sides, but even though he is left handed he will probably be FR or PR hold. He has a much better strikeout pitch, even though Verlander throws harder. The Mets park really favors lefties too, so this is in our favor. I prefer my best pitcher to be a right hander (and I question Kazmir's size), which is why I would offer one of the extra outfielders (Bradley or Gonzalez) and Kazmir for Verlander. If this doesnt work, Dave Bush could be another option.

Gary Matthews

The Mets are an outstanding young team with a lot of players on the rise, yet they arent quite there this season. I am thinking of offering Coco Crisp for Gary Matthews. Its a great upgrade this year, and I have liked Matthews for a long time.

He has responded in a positive way to this suggestion. If CF becomes a need, this is a better option than Patterson, but at a higher cost.

Dave Bush

I am now thinking of offering Coco Crisp and Scott Kazmir for Dave Bush and Gary Matthews.

Chipper Jones

I have had repeated conversations with Rob about Chipper Jones. Id like to get a real 3B.

Jake Westbrook

Rob and I have talked about a possible Maddux and Bradley for Westbrook and something deal. Depending on the something, it could be ok. Its a slight downgrade today, but a big upgrade in the future, unless Bradley really breaks out. I would like this something else to be Rich Aurilia or something of that comparable value to make this worthwhile.

Rob is no longer interested in Maddux. I have asked him what he thinks of a Kazmir and Penny for Westbrook and Lackey deal.

Rob has made this offer: Lackey, Westbrook, Clemens, Chipper, Aurilia, Benoit, Howry for Beckett, Kazmir, Hafner, STL #1 pick. I dont see any reason to do this deal.

Johnny Damon

This deal was declined.

Jason Schmidt

The team needs an ace, and Florida is probably a .500 team. A deal involving Kazmir for Schmidt could help us both, especially if Dave Roberts can somehow be in the deal too.

I no longer want to trade Kazmir unless its a really stellar deal. I would like to get Schmidt, but it would need to be similar to what I have offered for Pedro. He has responded that he would trade Schmidt for a package of young players. I am wondering if maybe Schmidt and D Roberts could be had for the first rounder.

I opened discussions with Florida about possibly sending Penny and Bradley for Schmidt and Roberts. If this doesnt work there are two possibilities, Crisp and Penny (option #1), or Kazmir (option #2) for Schmidt and Roberts. I would much rather trade Penny and stuff than let Kazmir go, for one thing Schmidt-Kazmir-Maddux is a solid playoff 1-2-3. Fortifying with Pedro would make the rotation nice, and would allow Beckett to be left off the playoff roster.

I made the second offer, Kazmir for Schmidt and Roberts. I dont expect it to happen, but if it does it fills some holes. He responded that he is interested but doesnt like including Roberts as well in the deal. I said he can also have Todd Linden, which will improve his age situation. I look forward to this deal, I think we can make it happen.

This deal looks dead. The only remaining possibility is Penny and Crisp for Schmidt and Roberts. I just dont know how much that helps the team.

Corey Patterson

The Royals have agreed in priciple to a deal involving Bradley and a choice for Patterson and a choice a few rounds later. If CF turns out to be a problem, this is a makeable deal.

Pedro Martinez

I have begun discussions with Seattle about Pedro. He is most interested in draft picks. I am not willing to trade the #1 for Pedro unless significant other compensation is also included. I have told him I would give the first non-first round pick I have plus a good player or the first two non-first round picks for Pedro. He would be ace quality and has 5 playoff starts.

The Pedro discussion has resumed. He again asked about the 1st rounder, but I dont want to trade it for Pedro unless I get significant other compensation. Players I would consider as significant that could be included are Michael Barrett or Morgan Ensberg. Maybe Bradley can be traded for Pedro.

Ivan Rodriguez

Dennis has posted another one of those ads like everyone else, and he is advertising Pudge and Millwood, if they could be had for Beckett, I think the value is right to make the deal. Dennis is not interested in Beckett. I have asked about getting Prior. He has responded that he wants Maddux and something for Prior. That doesnt make any sense for this team. Looks like this is a dead end.

I just made a new offer involving Kazmir, Linden and Lieberthal for Pudge and Millwood. Its a long shot, but worthwhile if accepted.

Raul Ibanez

Steve wants a right handed OF with numbers, and Alou is certainly that. If I can trade Alou and a guy that is on the cutting block for Ibanez, that helps a lot. Its nice having Alou because he hits both sides well, but Ibanez has so many plate apps and is dominating vs right, which is more important. Lets see what he says.

Looks like his primary need is pitching so he is not going to make a deal until he gets a P.

Marcus Thames

Alou is a very similar player to Thames except much older. If a couple of holes could be filled for Atlanta, maybe such a swap makes sense. I can see sending either Jamie Walker or Mike Lieberthal plus Alou for Thames. Heck, worst case is send both. The only downside is that Lieberthal would then not be eligible to be called back, or in the draft at all for that matter.

He responded that he thought this was a fair deal but he wants to trade Thames for a CF.

Jorge Posada

I am considering offering the 1st rounder or Josh Beckett for Posada and Kenny Rogers. Both are very usable and old. The problem is I certainly dont want two left handed starters, and the trade of Kazmir has been much more difficult than anticipated. I guess if this is made I can send Kaz straight up for Schmidt, since I am pretty sure he would do that. Its a tough decision.

Juan Pierre

I have been talking to Sid today and it turns out he is discussing Brian Schneider with Chip. I told him if he can get Jason Schmidt, I would send him Kazmir (who he really likes) and Crisp for Schmidt and Pierre, and if its after protected lists are in I would include a mid round pick as well. That would help a lot.

I just told him I would give him Crisp and a 6th rounder for Pierre and an 11th rounder once the protected lists are in. He is interested.

Direction

Unless someone offers a really enticing package of great young players, this is a season to go for it all.

Plan

I have taken a hard look at the roster and I dont see a way to get down to 12, but maybe to 14 or 15. If the quality of the players is improved for some quantity, that would make the draft more critical, but certainly this is the kind of draft that could be very helpful. I have to stake it all on the Abreu deal. If that is made, the draft will need to be treated differently then if it isnt. If that deal does not go down, here is my current plan:

Trade Maddux, Penny and Bradley for Westbrook and Lackey, or some other combination that is similar for this year but better in terms of age and reduces the protected roster. Use the #1 pick on Russell Martin, Kenji Johjima or Ronny Paulino (assuming he is available, he was in the reserve draft last year). Trade up if needed. Place a slightly lower value on now in the draft (normally I value the current card as 55% of a players value). Go starting pitching heavy. Beyond that the team only needs a CF vs R and LF, RF vs L, plus relief pitching.

If Abreu is acquired:

Protect approximately 15-17 guys. Try and trade Bradley or Gonzalez to improve the draft possition, possibly to Cleveland or the Cubs. Needs are starting pitching, LF vs L and relief. Use a majority of early picks on a dominant reliever and prospects who are usable part time.

Team Building Philosophy

Since we had that mini-discussion about team stuff, I figured it might be good to get my thoughts written. This way we can find where we differ, and then bridge that gap and hopefully improve our ability to field a great team and win games.

Offense

I prefer to have a lot of speed at the top of the lineup, but OBP is more important. I prefer no more than 3-4 right handed hitters if possible. The #4 hitter should be a RH with a lot of power and good OBP, Pujols is the ideal #4 in my opinion. The #3 hitter should have great OBP, good average and good power and be a switch hitter or LH. The #5 hitter should be a LH batter with great power and OBP. I prefer not to stack more than 2 RH batters in a row, there are so many relievers that get them out, make the opponent either have a guy who is good vs both sides or use 2 relievers.

Defense

I prefer range over sure-handedness. I dont mind some errors if it means the guy gets to a lot of balls. In the OF I really like guys who can throw. With as much value as I place on taking an extra base for free, having an OF who can prevent it is a nice bonus, and often isnt too expensive. I really prefer a C who can throw, if he cant the pitching staff needs to be tailored.

Pitching

I prefer to have one left handed starter and one left handed reliever. Its crucial that both be good vs both sides, because they are so easy to min-max. The #1 starter must be right handed and dominant both ways. The closer must not blow games, those are wins thrown away. A bad start can be overcome, but a blown save is very difficult (less innings to work with) to beat.

Bench

I prefer to only carry 2 C so there are enough spaces to platoon a couple of guys and have some bats when needed. No more than one of the reserve OF should be veterans, and all of the reserve OF should have big bats vs at least one side. Its great to have a real fast pinch runner too.

Overall Philosophy

I prefer a well rounded approach to a team with one big strength. It seems to be much more difficult to stop a team that does a lot of things, than one that concentrates on one.