PSBL Archive

Positions and Needs

As of now, the needs stack up as follows:

Infield

C 191 plate apps, someone who hits RH, Jason LaRue to hedge the John Buck bet
2B someone who hits lefties (not a necessity)
3B 311 plate apps, someone who hits lefties, a young player
SS someone who hits lefties (not a necessity)

Outfield

RF someone who hits lefties
One really good hitter at least would be nice, but not necessary
Young talent

Starting Pitching

28 starts
Young talent

Relief Pitching

95 appearances
Hopefully 3 dominating relievers

Secondary Draft

In this space I will list my impression of the top 30 or so players available in the secondary draft.

Trades

I have already made some offers to other teams that would need to be honored if accepted. Barring that, everything here is to be discussed.

Old Proposed Deals

I have moved all the old trade discussion to: Pre-deadline Deals

Post-deadline Deals

What follows is my plan for deals going forward.

Kelvim Escobar

I spoke to the new Dodgers manager on the phone today and he assured me that while he isnt ready to make any deals yet, he will be. I would like to try and get Kelvim Escobar and Curtis Granderson from him, hopefully for Scott Kazmir and Coco Crisp or Aaron Rowand.

I responded to his recent advertisement and told him I am interested in trading the 1st along with a couple of other players. I asked if he would be willing to trade Escobar and Piazza. My current plan is to offer Crisp, the 1st and a mid pick for Escobar, Piazza and a pick a little worse.

Dan Haren

If the Escobar deal cant happen, the Haren one is a good option. I dont know if I really want to trade Rowand for Patterson, but I do like Haren quite a bit.

Marcus Thames

I am considering offering Rowand for Thames. Thats a tough choice for me.

Obviously this is no longer valid.

Juan Rivera

I would rather have Rivera than Thames, they have similar bats and Rivera plays CF. That EX arm should stop a lot of would be baserunners too.

I wonder what it would take to turn Rowand into Rivera? Better offense, less defense, but Crisp is a solid defensive replacement to who cares.

Juan Pierre

I think Pierre can be had from Sid, and if Schneider can be in the deal as well, thats a huge win. It would really free up the 1st rounder to be used in any way possible.

If Crisp can be turned into Pierre somehow, and Rowand into Rivera, the OF is really set. Then the 1st becomes very flexible. I was thinking about a couple of deals to make the trade to 7 happen, and its a long road, but possible.

Sid responded to my Crisp and Winn for Pierre and an 8th offer, he sounds interested but is thinking on it. I dont know if it will happen or not.

Yadier Molina

I know Dennis likes this guy a lot, probably too much, but if he can be had for a non-first round pick, I think its a deal that should be made. He cant hit at all, but at least he throws a lot. Again, it frees up the 1st, though I would still consider C there.

He wants way too much for him.

Mike Lowell

The Phillies do not have a CF and Lowell is an aging player. I am going to offer his choice of Coco Crisp or Aaron Rowand for Lowell. In either case I would rather go into the draft needing a CF than a 3B.

I decided to include a Kendall option in here too since Buck was just acquired. This turned out to be a great idea, since he accepted the Kendall deal. Now the 1st is surplus.

David DeJesus

Before I offer for Lowell, I decided to try and get a young CF you had mentioned you like. I offered Coco Crisp and Aaron Rowand for David DeJesus and John Buck. If this deal works, the 1st rounder is no longer a need pick, and could be offered in a deal for a stud player (first choice will be Dan Haren).

Dave responded that he is interested but needs to think. He also expressed that he was afraid Rowand would lose his job. So I offered him Crisp and a 6th rounder for his choice of his C and DeJesus. I think I like this deal even more, I hope he does it.

I made Dave a larger offer for DeJesus, Buck, Bradford and Otsuka. It will gut the draft, but leave the 1st and fill the hole at C, potentially making things much more comfortable. He said he wants two more days. I am relatively certain he is fielding offers from other teams, but the fact that he didnt turn this down outright leads me to believe that its better than what he has received so far. That bodes well.

He has responded that he will give me Buck and his 20th for the 5th and 8th. Not bad.

Now I feel like the DeJesus thing can really happen. Assuming I cant make a deal with Florida, the 1st and Dave's 20 back for DeJesus and Bradford would be a nice move.

Pick 7

I opened discussions with Phil about the 7th pick. This really only works well if I can move up with Moises Alou (which he said isnt enough, so far) or something else replaceable, like Brian Fuentes, or if I can make the deal with Dave to get a C. I dont see any reason to use pick 7 on a C, though we would have the pick of the litter. Its my opinion that if we can get up that high we either take Nick Markakis, a top pitching prospect (A Sanchez or Weaver) or Drew. If none of those guys are available, I think trading down a couple of spots and getting Martin or Johjima is a good plan.

I havent heard from Phil in a day or so. I dont know what I can package to move up here, but if I can do it I want to. In fact, if we can move up here it almost makes the Schneider deal doable (because then we wont be taking a C in the 1st most likely). But still I am more interested in Buck from Dave. I asked if Rowand would be more inticing for him. He is not interested in Rowand.

Maybe Kendall and the 1 for Navarro and his 1? Its a reasonable risk considering that someone really good will be available there and Navarro at the very least is young and has potential. Maybe this could lead to a Posada deal?

Brian Schneider

Rob has offered Brian Schneider and Randy Winn for Coco Crisp and Aaron Rowand. This is a perplexing deal and Im not sure whether I should do it. Schneider is a solid left handed C who throws well, but offensively he isnt much. At least he has an ok OB but his SLG sucks. Winn is approximately equal to Rowand offensively vs R (without the Terror), and they are close defensively, but Winn sucks vs L and is full time. Its an interesting trade-off. This deal makes the team older and not necessarily better now, but does free the 1st rounder to be used on anything. The down side for that is C is probably what would make the most sense there anyway (considering what will be available), unless the pick is dealt.

I turned this deal down. Like you said, it is one of those mascara deals (sure would look bad in the morning).

Brandon Inge

I just asked Cincinnati if they would be willing to trade Inge, Wang and Rivera for Kazmir, Crisp and a pick besides the 1st. I dont know how he will respond, but he is loaded at 3B and the OF, and Wang is good but doesnt strike anyone out. If he values that, he could bite.

I just had a good conversation with him on the phone. This deal isnt happening as it sits, but it may happen in some form eventually. He doesnt want Crisp because his team lacks power. He just emailed me and now it sounds like he wants Kazmir, the 1st and 6th for Wang, Inge and Rivera. Im not sure though. Im also not sure about that deal.

John Lackey

I dont know why I didnt think of this before. I should offer Kazmir and Martinez for Westbrook and Lackey. Those pitchers are still good and we gain 20 starts.

Here is his latest iteration: Jake Westbrook, Randy Winn, Jose Cruz ó Pedro Martinez, Coco Crisp, Aaron Rowand. Thats a solid no in my book. Either of our OF are better than either of those we get, and although Westrook has better long term potential, he isnt much different from Penny, whom we traded for Martinez in the first place. I would do this deal if Lackey were the P.

Rob has a new offer contingent on him making another deal: Lackey, Westbrook, and Winn FOR Kazmir, Pedro, and Crisp? I would consider this if I could give Rowand instead of Crisp. Rowand and Winn have similar roles.

Jorge Posada

Im going to see if I can turn Buck into Posada. Ill send a feeler email and get his impression.

He isnt interested.

Freddy Garcia

Now that the 1st can be traded, I am considering sending it plus Crisp and a later pick, maybe round 13, for Garcia, Bard and Diaz. This deal would virtually lock up the starts situation, would send C pa's up near 700 and fills RF and LF while the only downside (this year) is it necessitates getting 200 or so plate apps in CF. Garcia is a perfect fit for Busch stadium as well, his only problem being slugging vs R, and thats hard to come by in our park.

A risk

I am considering offering the 1st and Corey Koskie to the Mariners for Morgan Ensberg and Carlos Guillen. This would make the 3B situation much more manageable and allow a SS to be traded. In the worst case Guillen can be offered to Baltimore for his 1, since he plays 1B.

Pick 14

I offered Buck and the 1st to Florida for pick 14 and 46. He basically trades down 5 spots and gives a 3rd for what would be the 7th best C in this draft. I think its doable, and we have negotiating room, I would take pick 58 instead of 46.

He said he needs a couple of days to think. I told him if I dont hear back in a week that I will assume the deal is dead. I love this deal, its great for the draft.

Mike Cameron

I have offered Winn and Crisp for Cameron and a 5th rounder. Cameron is an older player, but will look great full time in CF and is very well rounded, and that 5th will help with relief pitching at the very least.

Rafael Furcal

Since Rob is trading everyone else, I enquired about Furcal. He basically wants a ton, but with enough negotiating it could be manageable. He wants a P, the 1st and Crisp. Depending on if I can trade Cabrera for a P and if I can get something in return from Rob that will help, this might be doable.

Andruw Jones

Houston is considering trading A Jones. His asking price is steep (Crisp, Winn, Beckett #1 pick for Jones, Clevlen and 3 picks), but if it can be pared down it adds a real thumper to the lineup. I cant see trading Beckett and not getting a P back, however. Maybe if one or two of the picks are good it could be doable.

Direction

Unless someone offers a really enticing package of great young players, this is a season to go for it all.

Plan

The protected list sits at 15, and the needs are many, but manageable. Right now the plan is pretty straight-forward:

Use 1st rounder on a C (current order: Martin, Johjima, Paulino, Napoli, Alfonzo, or Ross--though this would be a trade down deal)

In picks 5-10 get a 3B (Bell or better), a prospect, and 3 relievers

Use remaining picks to fill needs as appropriate Before the draft a couple of well placed trades could help a lot. If a C can be acquired beforehand that would help immensely, then a best athlete available pick can be utilized. I spoke on the phone to the Dodgers manager and he said he will be ready to make some deals in about a month. He has the right kind of talent to turn everything around for us.

2007 Season archive

We need to get a backup IF who can hit, an OF who can hit lefties and has a lot of plate apps, and to replace Jeff Weaver.

Claudio Vargas

I have no idea what to offer yet. I had a roundabout discussion with Scott about this deal and it isnt going to happen. We got close, but his eligibility situation and our lack of decent guys on the reserve roster killed this deal.

Curt Schilling

I offered Jeff Weaver for Schilling straight up. I would be willing to include a prospect as well, but I dont think its worth that much. I think Weaver can have a big year in Safeco.

Kenny Rogers

I am thinking Johjima and Weaver for Rogers and Posada. This would greatly improve their youth and help us immensely this year. That would catapult us up near the top I think.

Woody Williams

I dont know if he is worth Weaver by himself.

John Smoltz

He has overvalued Smoltz in the past, but who knows?

Kevin Mench

He fits the bill in the OF.

Juan Rivera

Why the hell is his name constantly on this list? I think he would be great filling in all over the place in the OF and even DHing now and again. With his injury, his value should be down. I have my fingers crossed. For a guy who is out for half the year he is sure being held tightly by his team.

Marco Scutaro/Pablo Ozuna

The Cubs have both of these guys, and getting one would help a lot. He is unpredictable to trade with, however.

Team Building Philosophy

Since we had that mini-discussion about team stuff, I figured it might be good to get my thoughts written. This way we can find where we differ, and then bridge that gap and hopefully improve our ability to field a great team and win games.

Offense

I prefer to have a lot of speed at the top of the lineup, but OBP is more important. I prefer no more than 3-4 right handed hitters if possible. The #4 hitter should be a RH with a lot of power and good OBP, Pujols is the ideal #4 in my opinion. The #3 hitter should have great OBP, good average and good power and be a switch hitter or LH. The #5 hitter should be a LH batter with great power and OBP. I prefer not to stack more than 2 RH batters in a row, there are so many relievers that get them out, make the opponent either have a guy who is good vs both sides or use 2 relievers.

Defense

I prefer range over sure-handedness. I dont mind some errors if it means the guy gets to a lot of balls. In the OF I really like guys who can throw. With as much value as I place on taking an extra base for free, having an OF who can prevent it is a nice bonus, and often isnt too expensive. I really prefer a C who can throw, if he cant the pitching staff needs to be tailored.

Pitching

I prefer to have one left handed starter and one left handed reliever. Its crucial that both be good vs both sides, because they are so easy to min-max. The #1 starter must be right handed and dominant both ways. The closer must not blow games, those are wins thrown away. A bad start can be overcome, but a blown save is very difficult (less innings to work with) to beat.

Bench

I prefer to only carry 2 C so there are enough spaces to platoon a couple of guys and have some bats when needed. No more than one of the reserve OF should be veterans, and all of the reserve OF should have big bats vs at least one side. Its great to have a real fast pinch runner too.

Overall Philosophy

I prefer a well rounded approach to a team with one big strength. It seems to be much more difficult to stop a team that does a lot of things, than one that concentrates on one.

Mathematical Analysis of Lineup Choices

This should not be construed as a justification of why my method is better than yours. I dont believe it could ever be proved either way. What I have done his is offer a mathematical analysis of the foundation of my reasoning.

Assumptions

The analysis ceases to be simple of some assumptions concerning remote possibilities are included, therefore I have made this section to elucidate the foundation assumptions of this analysis.

No one hits into a double play
No one is thrown out stealing
No errors occur
Big innings are ignored (5+ batters come to the plate)
Everyone reaches base at a constant rate based solely on their OB% vs right handed pitchers

Definitions

I am defining a run scoring opportunity as one where Pujols comes to bat with someone on base. This will also include the times when one of the players preceding Albert has hit a HR or been driven in by one of the other batters. Rather than completing the analysis that is required to remove those, I will have them included because those were also run scoring opportunities, and they were converted to runs.

Run producers are defined by the magnitude of their OPS. In actuality I have been working on a better formula that takes into account the league averages, and weights OB differently than SLG compared to their respective norms. I also would need to weight AVG differently than the BB portion of OB, since nobody scores from 2nd on a BB. I havent finished that yet, so I will use simple OPS.

Hypothesis

It is most effective to put the three best OB players in front of the two greatest run producers to increase run production.

Analysis

In this model the lineup is structured as in the MP I made. In any inning where Lofton leads off, Pujols has a 76.7% chance of coming to bat, and this would, by definition be a run scoring opportunity. In any inning Iguchi leads off, Pujols has a 62.5% chance of coming to bat with a run scoring opportunity. When Drew leads off an inning, the chance is 41.0%. If we assume all of these instances are equally likely (the chance of any batter making the final out is equally distributed), the chance of Albert having a run scoring opportunity is 60.1%. This means that if he receives 700 plate apps batting 4th, he will have 421 run scoring opportunities.

Weaknesses

The highest probability of Albert getting a run scoring opportunity is when Lofton leads off. This is given equal weight in the analysis because we dont know how many right handed pitchers we will face, even though it is the most likely occurrance, because every one of these games begins with it, then the rest are of equal probability.

Hypothesis

The best hitter should bat first to increase his plate appearances.

Additional Assumptions

The bottom portion of the lineup is equivalent to the MP I generated.

Analysis

Albert bats first, so never has a run scoring opportunity during the 1st inning. His chance of having a run scoring opportunity when Koskie leads off an inning is 71.9%. The chance when Alou leads off is 56.2% and when Cabrera leads off it is 34.2%. To give them equal weight his run scoring opportunity chance is 54.1%.

If we assume he will get 750 plate appearances over the course of the year, this yields 406 run scoring opportunities. This is actually flawed because we know that 160 of the plate apps will not take place with a run scoring opportunity, because they lead off the game.

Discussion

Is this analysis accurate? I dont know. All I know is this is the logic I have always used, though I never understood it as fully as I do now. Before you mentioned it, I just did what I saw MLB managers do and sprinkled in my own ideas. I remember seeing your lineup with Bonds leading off and wondering why you had done it. It never occurred to me that increasing his plate apps might generate more run production.

Data

I dont know if I mentioned that I am insane, if I didnt, consider yourself warned. I continued to research the best possible lineup and eventually found this [1]. It allows you to input a lineup and switch the players around and see how many runs this lineup will score. If I am understanding it correctly it places the lineup against MLB teams, probably National League. So it wont predict PSBL runs, but it can be used to extrapolate the number of runs one lineup will score relative to another.

I entered 3 different lineups, the standard one I made previously, the OPS model and the OB model similar to those I emailed you. I then ran them through the simulator in 10 batches of 1000 trials each, and came up with the following numbers:

Standard: 6.898
OPS model: 6.882
OB model: 6.992

So the OB model has fared the best. Of course, this cannot take into account the handedness of the batters. Another thing I did is compare the standard lineup with the most common substitutions, which brought these numbers:

Hinske instead of Koskie: 6.990
Borchard instead of Alou: 6.822
DeJesus instead of Alou: 6.777

This says to me that We should not use DeJesus in LF unless both Alou and Borchard are used, or in blowouts. It also brings Hinske up as the #1 3B over Koskie. Unless of course, the difference can be made up by defense. My intuition is it could, but when I did the numbers if both were used equally for half a season, Hinske would drive in almost 7 more weighted runs. I doubt Koskie will save 7 runs with his glove in that time period, though it is possible. I might do some analysis to this effect later.

Defensive Conjectures

I dont know how accurately DMB simulates actual defense, but if I assume it will perfectly simulate the differences between Hinske and Koskie, the following will occur (in half a season):

Koskie commits 12 errors, Hinske will commit none
Koskie will get 24 more putouts
Koskie will get 56 more assists

That is basically giving the opponent almost one extra baserunner every game, about 6 per series. Maybe it is worth those 7 runs.

Analysis

These numbers seem to indicate that the OB model could be superior to the model I normally use, to the tune of a little over 15 runs per season. It does not take into account things such as speed (how useful are Loftons steals in the middle of the lineup?), or ease of the opponent to manage against our lineup (left handed batters hit significantly lower vs left handers than the analog for right handers). Can these two factors combine to produce more than 15 runs over the course of a season?

I say yes. Mostly because of the lack of good pinch hitters on our team and the significant decrease in OPS versus lefties I believe that the relief matchups alone will accomplish this. Only once per 10 games would a left hander need to come in for multiple batters and cost a single run for the model to underperform enough to negate its advantage.

I had a great time doing this analysis. If you have any more for me to do, by all means, suggest it.

One more thing I do need to reiterate is I believe you are fully in charge of the lineup and all related decisions, so feel free to use any lineup you choose.